Posted on Fort Russ, January 26, 2015
Crimson Alter – Politrussia.com
Translated from Russian by Kristina Rus

2015: The Apocalypse or the Renaissance of the Russian economy? 

Reading endless stories of schizo-patriots and liberals that the Russian economy will soon experience a complete collapse, would be very amusing if these stories, shaped exactly by the manuals of Rand Corporation, did not get on the nerves of real Russians. We all have a difficult year ahead, and to live with an eye on a “total collapse, looming on the horizon,” described by the gloom-and-doom prophets of all colors, – is a dubious pleasure. To live in constant fear that “the oligarchs will  overthrow Putin, knock him out with a snuff-box, and the time will come to go out to the Patriotic Maidan to save Moscow”, is simply impossible. It is impossible not to notice that this psychosis is created skillfully and the main card of the manipulators is based on the hope that the audience will not notice those facts that clearly indicate that the situation is moving in a completely different direction.

Briefly, this scenario can be formulated as follows: subjugation of the oligarchy plus full state capitalism. About this, as a terrible disaster for the Russian economy, talks German Gref. Actually, this is not a disaster, but a renaissance.

In the working plan of the structure of the Russian economy, the Kremlin decided to take into account the positive and negative experience of the crisis of 2008 with amendments to current geopolitical realities. By all indications, at the famous meeting with Russian business leaders, Putin gave the oligarchs a choice: work for the country (dedollarization, participation in support of the ruble, the transfer of control over enterprises into the Russian jurisdiction, and so on) or the state will ‘deal’ with them and take the property.

Putin’s strategy is easy to reconstruct based on leaked to the press elements of the preparation for the meeting of the President and the leaders of Russian business. This is how these “gentleman talks” were described by government and business sources of Gazeta.ru:

“…Representatives of ministries and agencies contacted major exporters, shareholders and owners, and had a heart-to-heart conversation with them. The conversation went something like this: “Have you heard about our situation with the ruble? – “Yes” – “Could you possibly now not aggravate the problem – sell part of foreign currency earnings to support the ruble and to calm the citizens?”

Then there was a fork in the conversation. Some agreed with the recommendation, and some – not. The naysayers said: “I have a debt in foreign currency, and the ruble is floating free. So I am saving. You don’t have the right to force me”. They were replied: “Well, do as you wish. We have no right to force someone. But if tomorrow you will come to the government to ask for support, state guarantees, loans and in general… then don’t expect anything”.

The oligarchs had time to think, but the first results appeared immediately. The decision of Alisher Usmanov to transfer control of his companies (Megafon, Metalloinvest) to Russia – is an indication that the smartest oligarchs have already made their bets. One can only envy the foresight of Usmanov – his financiers began to break into the Chinese (Hong Kong) capital markets already back in the summer and the process of transferring control of the offshore assets to Russia was started long before Putin’s “December ultimatum”. The ability to feel the essence of time is the key to survival in the current geopolitical conditions.

A very unexpected example of the correct orientation in the political space is the owner of AFK Sistema, Yevtushenkov. It would seem, in the context of Western court decisions in the Yukos case, the incredible pressure of the West on Putin and the nationalization of Bashneft, Yevtushenkov had all the reasons to become Khodorkovsky 2.0 – the icon of the opposition, the hope of the State Department and the applicant for the post of Moscow’s curator after an oligarchic Maidan. In fact, many had expected this course of events. Instead, Yevtushenkov has “converted” in a few months, for which 10 years in prison was not enough for Khodorkovsky. Many argue that it is Yevtushenkov who sold those 3 billion dollars, mentioned by Putin. Moreover, Yevtushenkov had himself issued a black mark in the eyes of the West in his recent interview. Note two significant quotes: Continue reading →