Month: July 2022

New York Times repudiates drive for ‘decisive military victory’ in Ukraine, calls for peace negotiations

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From Anti-War.com

By John Walsh
May 23, 2022

Ukraine must negotiate based on a “realistic assessment” and “limits” to U.S./NATO commitment, says NYT

On May 11 The New York Times ran an article documenting that all was not going well for the U.S. in Ukraine, and a companion opinion piece hinting that a shift in direction might be in order.

Then on May 19, the editorial board, the full Magisterium of the Times, moved from hints to a clarion call for a change in direction, declaring that “total victory” over Russia is not possible and that Ukraine will have to negotiate a peace in a way that reflects a “realistic assessment” and the “limits” of U.S. commitment.  

The Times serves as one the main shapers of public opinion for the elite and so its pronouncements are not to be taken lightly.

US Limits

The editorial contains the following key passages:

“In March, this board argued that the message from the United States and its allies to Ukrainians and Russians alike must be: No matter how long it takes, Ukraine will be free. …”

“That goal cannot shift, but in the end, it is still not in America’s best interest to plunge into an all-out war with Russia, even if a negotiated peace may require Ukraine to make some hard decisions.” 

And, to ensure that there is no ambiguity, it went on: “A decisive military victory for Ukraine over Russia, in which Ukraine regains all the territory Russia has seized since 2014, is not a realistic goal. … Russia remains too strong…”

To make certain that President Joe Biden and the Ukrainians understand what they should do, it adds:

“… Mr. Biden should also make clear to President Volodymyr Zelensky and his people that there is a limit to how far the United States and NATO will go to confront Russia, and limits to the arms, money and political support they can muster. It is imperative that the Ukrainian government’s decisions be based on a realistic assessment of its means and how much more destruction Ukraine can sustain.”

As Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky read those words, he must surely have begun to sweat.  The voice of his masters was telling him that he and Ukraine will have to make some sacrifices for the U.S. to save face.  As he contemplates his options, his thoughts must surely run back to February 2014, and the U.S.-backed Maidan coup that culminated in the hasty exit of President Viktor Yanukovych from his office, his country and almost from this earth.

Too dangerous

In the eyes of the Times editorial writers, the war has become a U.S. proxy war against Russia using Ukrainians as cannon fodder – and it is careening out of control:  “The current moment is a messy one in this conflict, which may explain President Biden and his cabinet’s reluctance to put down clear goal posts. “The United States and NATO are already deeply involved, militarily and economically. Unrealistic expectations could draw them ever deeper into a costly, drawn-out war …

“Recent bellicose statements from Washington — President Biden’s assertion that Mr. Putin ‘cannot remain in power,’ Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s comment that Russia must be ‘weakened’ and the pledge by the House speaker, Nancy Pelosi, that the United States would support Ukraine ‘until victory is won’ — may be rousing proclamations of support, but they do not bring negotiations any closer.”

While the Times dismisses these “rousing proclamations,” it is all too clear that for the neocons in charge of U.S. foreign policy, the goal has always been a proxy war to bring down Russia. This has not become a proxy war; it has always been a proxy war.

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The Fantasy of Fanaticism, by Scott Ritter

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From Consortium News
by Scott Ritter
June 25, 2022

For a moment in time, it looked as if reality had managed to finally carve its way through the dense fog of propaganda-driven misinformation that had dominated Western media coverage of Russia’s “Special Military Operation” in Ukraine.

In a stunning admission, Oleksandr Danylyuk, a former senior adviser to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense and Intelligence Services, noted that the optimism that existed in Ukraine following Russia’s decision to terminate “Phase One” of the SMO (a major military feint toward Kiev), and begin “Phase Two” (the liberation of the Donbass), was no longer warranted. “The strategies and tactics of the Russians are completely different right now,” Danylyuk noted. “They are being much more successful. They have more resources than us and they are not in a rush.”

“There’s much less space for optimism right now,” Danylyuk concluded.

In short, Russia was winning.

Danylyuk’s conclusions were not derived from some esoteric analysis drawn from Sun Tzu or Clausewitz, but rather basic military math. In a war that had become increasingly dominated by the role of artillery, Russia simply was able to bring to bear on the battlefield more firepower than Ukraine.

Ukraine started the current conflict with an artillery inventory that included 540 122mm self-propelled artillery guns, 200 towed 122mm howitzers, 200 122mm multiple-rocket launch systems, 53 152mm self-propelled guns, 310 towed 152mm howitzers, and 96 203mm self-propelled guns, for approximately 1,200 artillery and 200 MLRS systems.

For the past 100-plus days, Russia has been relentlessly targeting both Ukraine’s artillery pieces and their associated ammunition storage facilities. By June 14, the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that it had destroyed “521 installation of multiple launch rocket systems” and “1947 field artillery guns and mortars.”

Even if the Russian numbers are inflated (as is usually the case when it comes to wartime battle damage assessments), the bottom line is that Ukraine has suffered significant losses among the very weapons systems — artillery — which are needed most in countering the Russian invasion.

But even if Ukraine’s arsenal of Soviet-era 122mm and 152mm artillery pieces were still combat-worthy, the reality is that, according to Danylyuk, Ukraine has almost completely run out of ammunition for these systems and the stocks of ammunition sourced from the former Soviet-bloc Eastern European countries that used the same family of weapons have been depleted.

Ukraine is left doling out what is left of its former Soviet ammunition while trying to absorb modern Western 155mm artillery systems, such as the Caesar self-propelled gun from France and the U.S.-made M777 howitzer.

But the reduced capability means that Ukraine is only able to fire some 4,000-to-5,000 artillery rounds per day, while Russia responds with more than 50,000. This 10-fold disparity in firepower has proven to be one of the most decisive factors when it comes to the war in Ukraine, enabling Russia to destroy Ukrainian defensive positions with minimal risk to its own ground forces.

Casualties

This has led to a second level of military math imbalances, that being casualties.

Mykhaylo Podolyak, a senior aid to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, recently estimated that Ukraine was losing between 100 and 200 soldiers a day on the frontlines with Russia, and another 500 or so wounded. These are unsustainable losses, brought on by the ongoing disparity in combat capability between Russia and Ukraine symbolized, but not limited to, artillery.

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Report: Ukraine Armed Forces losses “considerable”; false flag attack planned by Kiev for Odessa using actors, foreign media, and UNICEF

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From Strategic Stability

Report # 92. AFU suffer considerable losses on all fronts
July 2, 2022

1. Situation on the battlefields

Russian Defence Ministry reported on July 2nd about the progress of the special military operation in Ukraine. It claimed that the enemy suffers considerable losses on all fronts. Lisichansk has been captured.

Three battalions from 10th Mountain Assault and 72nd Mechanised Brigades have lost over 50% of their personnel near Verkhnekamenka and Zolotaryovka just in the past 24 hours.

Russian Aerospace Forces have launched a high-precision attack at provisional base of 1st Battalion from 30th Mechanised Brigade. The attack has resulted in the elimination of up to 120 Ukrainian servicemen and about 15 units of military equipment.

In addition, Russian aviation has neutralised a provisional armament and military equipment storage base of 10th Mountain Assault Brigade deployed at the territory of a tractor plant in Kharkov. The attack has resulted in the elimination of up to 30 servicemen and 10 units of armoured and motor vehicles.

Russian Federation Armed Forces continue launching attacks at other military facilities located in Ukraine.

High-precision attacks launched by Russian Aerospace Forces have resulted in the elimination of 5 command posts of the AFU near Artyomovsk and Chasov Yar (the DPR), Pervomayskoye, Zelyony Gay and Barmashovo (Nikolayev Region), 3 munitions depots near Shevchenkovo and Novogrigorovka (Zaporozhye Region), as well as AFU manpower and military equipment in 32 areas.

Within the counter-battery warfare, high-precision attacks launched by Russian Aerospace Forces have resulted in the neutralisation of 4 MLRS platoons near Novoluganskoye, Zhelannoye, Berdychi and Vozdvizhenka from where the AFU had been shelling the settlements of the DPR.

Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery have neutralised: 39 AFU command posts, 2 munitions depots near Nikolayev, as well as manpower and military equipment in 302 areas.

Russian air defence systems have shot down 1 MiG-29 of the Ukrainian Air Force near Yavkino (Nikolayev Region).

19 Ukrainian UAVs have been shot down near Voskresenovka, Glinskoye, Pitomnik, Zhovtnevoye, Rubezhnoye, Petrovka (Kharkov region), Rabotino, Novodanilovka (Zaporozhye region), Petrovskoye, Popasnaya, Kremennaya (the LPR), Snezhnoye, Vysokoye, Yasinovataya, Donetsk, Makeyevka, Dokuchayevsk, Komsomolskoye (the DPR).

4 projectiles launched by MLRS have been intercepted near Yasinovataya, Mineralnoye (the DPR) and Chernobayevka (Kherson Region).

In total, 227 airplanes and 134 helicopters, 1,430 unmanned aerial vehicles, 353 anti-aircraft missile systems, 3,886 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 702 combat vehicles equipped with multiple rocket-launching systems, 3,073 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 3,954 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the special military operation.

2. Humanitarian situation

Russian troops continue to carefully record the facts of the inhumane treatment of civilians and use of residential buildings, educational institutions, cultural buildings and other social infrastructure facilities for military purposes by Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU):

1) in Zaporozhye, in the Children’s Art Palace (Zaporozhskaya Square), nationalists have deployed a strongpoint, an armament and munitions depot, as well as firing and sniper positions along the perimeter of the institution and at the upper floors of nearest residential buildings;

2) in Kramatorsk, the DPR, in the residence of technological vocational school (Uralskaya Street) and in the gymnasium №1 (Arkhangelskaya Street), militants of Ukrainian nationalist groups have deployed barracks, as well as armoured equipment and large-calibre artillery at Yubileyny park;

3) in Kramatorsk, in the school №35 (Yubileynaya Street), in the private residential buildings (Aktyubinskaya Street), servicemen of the AFU, foreign mercenaries and militants of Azov nationalist group have deployed strongpoints, sniper positions, armoured and mortar firing positions, while local residents remain forcibly detained in the basements and used as a human shield;

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