From Strategic Stability
Report # 92. AFU suffer considerable losses on all fronts
July 2, 2022
1. Situation on the battlefields
Russian Defence Ministry reported on July 2nd about the progress of the special military operation in Ukraine. It claimed that the enemy suffers considerable losses on all fronts. Lisichansk has been captured.
Three battalions from 10th Mountain Assault and 72nd Mechanised Brigades have lost over 50% of their personnel near Verkhnekamenka and Zolotaryovka just in the past 24 hours.
Russian Aerospace Forces have launched a high-precision attack at provisional base of 1st Battalion from 30th Mechanised Brigade. The attack has resulted in the elimination of up to 120 Ukrainian servicemen and about 15 units of military equipment.
In addition, Russian aviation has neutralised a provisional armament and military equipment storage base of 10th Mountain Assault Brigade deployed at the territory of a tractor plant in Kharkov. The attack has resulted in the elimination of up to 30 servicemen and 10 units of armoured and motor vehicles.
Russian Federation Armed Forces continue launching attacks at other military facilities located in Ukraine.
High-precision attacks launched by Russian Aerospace Forces have resulted in the elimination of 5 command posts of the AFU near Artyomovsk and Chasov Yar (the DPR), Pervomayskoye, Zelyony Gay and Barmashovo (Nikolayev Region), 3 munitions depots near Shevchenkovo and Novogrigorovka (Zaporozhye Region), as well as AFU manpower and military equipment in 32 areas.
Within the counter-battery warfare, high-precision attacks launched by Russian Aerospace Forces have resulted in the neutralisation of 4 MLRS platoons near Novoluganskoye, Zhelannoye, Berdychi and Vozdvizhenka from where the AFU had been shelling the settlements of the DPR.
Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery have neutralised: 39 AFU command posts, 2 munitions depots near Nikolayev, as well as manpower and military equipment in 302 areas.
Russian air defence systems have shot down 1 MiG-29 of the Ukrainian Air Force near Yavkino (Nikolayev Region).
19 Ukrainian UAVs have been shot down near Voskresenovka, Glinskoye, Pitomnik, Zhovtnevoye, Rubezhnoye, Petrovka (Kharkov region), Rabotino, Novodanilovka (Zaporozhye region), Petrovskoye, Popasnaya, Kremennaya (the LPR), Snezhnoye, Vysokoye, Yasinovataya, Donetsk, Makeyevka, Dokuchayevsk, Komsomolskoye (the DPR).
4 projectiles launched by MLRS have been intercepted near Yasinovataya, Mineralnoye (the DPR) and Chernobayevka (Kherson Region).
In total, 227 airplanes and 134 helicopters, 1,430 unmanned aerial vehicles, 353 anti-aircraft missile systems, 3,886 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 702 combat vehicles equipped with multiple rocket-launching systems, 3,073 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 3,954 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the special military operation.
2. Humanitarian situation
Russian troops continue to carefully record the facts of the inhumane treatment of civilians and use of residential buildings, educational institutions, cultural buildings and other social infrastructure facilities for military purposes by Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU):
1) in Zaporozhye, in the Children’s Art Palace (Zaporozhskaya Square), nationalists have deployed a strongpoint, an armament and munitions depot, as well as firing and sniper positions along the perimeter of the institution and at the upper floors of nearest residential buildings;
2) in Kramatorsk, the DPR, in the residence of technological vocational school (Uralskaya Street) and in the gymnasium №1 (Arkhangelskaya Street), militants of Ukrainian nationalist groups have deployed barracks, as well as armoured equipment and large-calibre artillery at Yubileyny park;
3) in Kramatorsk, in the school №35 (Yubileynaya Street), in the private residential buildings (Aktyubinskaya Street), servicemen of the AFU, foreign mercenaries and militants of Azov nationalist group have deployed strongpoints, sniper positions, armoured and mortar firing positions, while local residents remain forcibly detained in the basements and used as a human shield;
4) in Bakhmut, the DPR, in the industrial vocational college (Chaykovskogo Street), AFU units have deployed provisional bases, as well as armoured equipment, mortar positions and heavy artillery at the adjacent territory. Militants restrict local residents to leave their houses, all their attempts to evacuate to safe areas are severely suppressed.
5) in Kharkov, in the Technological Lyceum № 9 (Grazhdanskaya Street), AFU units have deployed barracks, armoured equipment, artillery and MRLS;
6) in Slavyansk, the DPR, in the art lyceum (Volzhskaya Street), AFU units have deployed their manpower, armoured equipment, long-range artillery and MRLS, the approaches to the lyceum have been mined, but local population has been intentionally left uninformed about it;
7) in Nikolayev, in the school № 51 (Parusny Alley), Ukrainian Territorial Defence units have deployed their manpower, munitions depots and armoured equipment.
8) in Zelenodolsk, Dnepropetrovsk Region, professionals of the Centre for Information and Psychological Operations of the AFU carried out another provocation in order to accuse Russian Armed Forces of alleged destruction of civilian infrastructure facilities by indiscriminate attacks. Nationalists had previously withdrawn all the cereals from a grain storage of an agricultural enterprise and exploded them, while the local administration, as it had already been practiced by Kiev authorities, has spread fabricated photo- and videographic data through Ukrainian and Western mass media. This kind of fakes are regularly replicated by the Ukrainian propaganda supported by the collective West without any verification.
9) the Kiev regime is preparing another provocation in Odessa for accusing Russian Armed Forces of assassination civilians (including minors) and deliberate destroying civilian infrastructure using cluster munitions prohibited by international agreements. In order to implement this provocation, up to 20 representatives of foreign mass media, as well as employees of the United Nations International Children’s Emergency Fund (UNICEF) had been transported to Odessa from June 26 to 28, 2022. In case of attacks launched by units of Russian Armed Forces at the bases of Ukrainian armed groups, the military administration of Odessa Region plans to simulate the destruction of a social facility where a crowd of actors (up to 30 anti-Russian activists) have been prepared to play the role of murdered and wounded people. All the participants of the staged scenes are to be paid $ 500, while each of them has already been paid $ 100 in advance.
Despite the repeated statements by the Joint Coordination Headquarters of the Russian Federation for Humanitarian Response, this kind of facts of inhumane treatment to the civilian population remains neglected by the international community and organisations. It occurs with the tacit consent of the western countries that continue turning a blind eye to the numerous war crimes of the Kiev regime.
Moscow has emphasized once again that the Russian Federation Armed Forces do not launch attacks at civilian infrastructure facilities and treat civilians with an exclusive humanity during the special military operation.
3. The USA intensifies war in Ukraine
The US Department of Defense is providing an additional $820 million package of military aid for Ukraine, including two surface-to-air missile defense systems, Pentagon spokesman Todd Breasseale announced on July 1st. He stressed that Washington continues to work with its allies “to provide Ukraine with capabilities to meet its evolving battlefield requirements.”
This brings total US security assistance provided to Ukraine to nearly $ 7.0 billion since Russian SMO on February 24 in response to the third Urran\inian aggression a-in Donbass.
The new deliveries will include ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), two Norwegian Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS), up to 150,000 rounds of 155mm artillery ammunition, and four additional counter-artillery radars.
President Lukashenko said that several days ago Ukrainian troops opened fire against Belarus.
4. John Bolton makes prediction for Ukraine conflict
US President Joe Biden had failed to deter the Russian offensive in Ukraine and now has no idea what to do with the ongoing conflict, former US National Security Adviser John Bolton has said.
He also claimed that a deal between Moscow and Kiev seems to be unlikely at the moment. “I don’t think Putin is in a position to say he has achieved Russia’s objectives. He may come to that at some point. It may be a lie, but he’ll find a way to stop the hostilities on his own terms,” he said. Ukrainian President Zelensky also “has no flexibility to negotiate at this point,” as polls show that the majority of Ukrainians object to any territorial concessions to Russia, he added.
The Republican politician appeared on CBS on July 2nd, claiming that Biden had “made mistake after mistake” in handling the Ukrainian crisis.
5. The OSCE saga in Ukraine is over
On July 1, the OSCE presence in Ukraine has ended ingloriously. This was stated in a statement by Vladislav Deinego, the Foreign Minister of the Luhansk People’s Republic, posted the same day in the Telegram channel.
The last eight years are particularly clear evidence of this — the period of the OSCE SMM or Special Monitoring Mission presence in Ukraine which actively conducted propaganda work aimed at supporting the criminal neo-Nazi Ukrainian regime. And despite some statements of the coordinator close to objectivity or theses in the SMM reports, all the activity of the mission was aimed at distorting the essence of events and misleading the international community, said Vladislav Deinego.
6. Ukraine accused of ‘arbitrary restrictions’ against journalists
Reporters Without Borders (RSF) has criticized Ukrainian authorities over “abuses” against foreign and local journalists covering the current conflict. RSF believes the Kiev government is creating “unjustified obstacles to the production of reliable and objective reporting” on the ground. It urged Kiev to swiftly eliminate obstacles for the media.
“Some 9,000 or so reporters covering the war in Ukraine have difficulties gaining access to certain places and difficulties filming or taking photos, and even are occasionally detained,” the organization, which safeguards freedom of information around the globe, said in a statement released on July 1st.
Those “arbitrary restrictions” are complicating the work of the press in the field and should be lifted, it insisted. “In a democratic country, war is no reason to hamper the work of journalists,” said Jeanne Cavelier, the head of RSF’s Eastern Europe and Central Asia desk. “Restrictions linked to national security are legitimate, but must be proportionate.”
The DPR and LPR summary of the situation on contact line (July 2, updated)
15:42 Shelling was recorded from the side of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the direction: 15:37 settlement Krasnogorovka – Donetsk (Kirov district): 4 shells of 152 mm caliber were fired.
15:35 Shelling was recorded from the side of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the direction: 14:00 settlement Novomikhailovka – Donetsk (Petrovsky district): 5 shells of 122 mm caliber were fired.
15:32 The LPR forces are now almost in the very center of Lisichansk, near the Shakhtar stadium, said Vitaly Kiselev, assistant to the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the republic. In the footage: the hoisting of the USSR flag at the historical and memorial complex “Memory” in the very center of the city.
15:29 The People’s Militia of the LPR, together with volunteers from the Russian Federation, delivered humanitarian aid to the settlement popasnaya
15:21 Yakutia will allocate funds to the DPR for the repair of schools, buildings and roads affected by Ukrainian bombing. The head of the region, Aisen Nikolaev, said during a live broadcast on the social network. According to him, the work will be completed before the start of the heating season and the school year. Earlier, the head of Yakutia and the head of the administration of the city of Kirovskoye in the DPR signed a cooperation agreement.
14:28 The LPR confirmed the encirclement of Ukrainian troops in Lisichansk.
The allied forces occupied all the strategic heights around the city, it is completely blocked, said Andrei Marochko, an officer of the People’s Militia of the LPR.
13:54 Lisichansk is completely surrounded, “the trap is slammed,” said Ramzan Kadyrov. The city is completely surrounded by allied troops, and a full-scale attack on the settlement will soon begin. The Armed Forces of Ukraine have nowhere to go. “The nationalists are driven into a corner, it remains only to put the finishing touches,” said the head of Chechnya.
13:29 The forces of the LPR and Russia are actively destroying the last centers of resistance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Lisichansk, they are unlikely to be able to leave the city, said a source close to the People’s Militia of the LPR.
13:24 The photo shows the result of a Ukrainian shell explosion in the courtyard of a residential building at 13 Mayakovsky Street, in the village of Panteleymonovka, Central City District of Horlivka. House building damaged
13:22 Shelling was recorded from the side of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the direction: 13:00 settlement Krasnogorovka – Donetsk (Kirovskiy district): 5 shells of 122 mm caliber were fired.
13:20 A crater in Yasinovataya after yesterday’s shelling.
10:30 Statement by the official representative of DPR People’s Police on the situation as of 10.30: the Ukrainian side continues to terrorize the civilian population of the Republic, inflicting massive artillery strikes on residential areas and civilian infrastructure, which in turn are not military facilities and do not pose a danger for the enemy. Over the past day, according to the DPR JCCC, the enemy fired more than three hundred and twenty shells from Grad multiple launch rocket systems, 155, 152 and 122-mm cannon artillery, as well as 82 and 120-mm mortars.
The fire was fired at the districts of eleven settlements of the Republic. As a result of shelling, twenty civilians were injured, two died. Nineteen residential buildings and four civilian infrastructure facilities were damaged. Additional information about injured civilians and damage to infrastructure is being specified.
Joint actions of the military personnel of the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation destroyed the following enemy weapons and military equipment: seven vehicles, five armored personnel carriers and more than sixty personnel.
10:21 Consequences of yesterday’s shelling of Yasinovataya by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. 14 apartment buildings, 5 houses of the private sector, industrial and trade facilities were damaged.
10:13 With the fire support of the RF Armed Forces, units of People’s Police of the DPR continue to carry out successful offensive operations in the Lisichansk region, during which the enemy suffered significant losses in manpower and armored vehicles.
10:01 After 03:00 shelling was recorded from the side of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the direction: 09:00 settlement Kurdyumovka – settlement Gorlovka: 3 shells of 152 mm caliber were fired.
09:12 Situation DPR: 08.20 — Air defense again worked over Donetsk. 05.14 — Fighting continues on the front line around Donetsk. Intense and powerful. 05.05 – Petrovsky district of Donetsk and Trudovskie – restless in the morning. North of Donetsk – ping pong, very noisy.
08:00 Important! LPR troops entered Lisichansk. A kindergarten previously occupied by the Ukrainian army was found on the outskirts of the city. The release continues.
07:54 Together with the First Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration of the Russian Federation Sergey Kiriyenko, the Chairman of the Government of the DPR Vitaly Khotsenko, the heads of the department and guests of the Republic at the largest mine “Komsomolets Donbassa” discussed the situation in the coal industry. Despite the fighting and the blockade, the industry survived. The republic is provided with the necessary amount of coal. Black gold enters enterprises, power plants, provides light and heat, ensuring energy security. The industry has a serious potential for export. The meeting discussed the development of the coal mining industry and ensuring the competitiveness of mines. For example, the expediency of transferring all social facilities from the balance sheet of coal enterprises to municipal ownership. They also discussed the mechanisms for providing certain categories of the population with coal for domestic needs. The coal industry of Donbass still has significant prospects, and the state will create all conditions for its development.
07:42 Kyiv security forces once a day fired at the territory in the zone of responsibility of the LPR, the representative office of the Republic in the Joint Center for Control and Coordination of the ceasefire regime reported.
“From the side of the armed formations of Ukraine, shelling was recorded at the village of Rovenky using the Tochka-U tactical missile system (two missiles). As a result of the shelling, 11 residential buildings were damaged, a private garage and a car were destroyed, the contact network of the railway track was damaged, glazing was damaged in a number of industrial and administrative buildings adjacent to the shelling sites”.
01:00 Positional battles near Donetsk: volleys of guns rumble in Makiivka
0:16 The situation with the Lisichansk cauldron: the Lisichansk-Seversk road has not been physically cut yet. That’s how they cut it, then it will be possible to talk about the boiler. So, for now, we can only talk about the operational environment. On the evening of July 01, the battles were for Verkhnekamenskoye, Zolotarevka, Novozolotarevka, Controversial, Novodruzhesk, Belaya Gora.
Fighting also continued in Lisichansk. Statements about 30 or even 50% control of Lisichansk most likely stem from the fact that the Lisichansk Oil Refinery and adjacent villages + outskirts + industrial zones are considered here.