The balkanization of Russia – has it begun?

From Fort Russ

October 10th, 2015 –
By Ilia Belous – iliabelous –
Translated for Fort Russ by Inessa Sinchougova –.

[In his address to PolitRussia  Belous’s position is that by 2018, every federal region in Russia is going to need its own ‘Putin.’ Foreign NGOs such as the National Endowment for Democracy have recently been outlawed in Russia due to covert activities being undertaken through them. Such activities continue however, through official US embassies.- I. Sinchougova]

Some interesting details surrounding the new General Consul  to Ekaterinburg have unfolded. Russia’s Ural region has recently received Mr. Marcus Micheli, as representative of the USA – a package deal with his unfavourable working experience in the Ukraine. His posting to the region does not seem to be accidental, once the details surrounding his prior activities are brought to light.

After my original publication about the new General Consul to Ekaterinburg, a number of my astute readers recognized the name as someone who used to be employed by the United States National Security Council, with Ukraine as his area of specialization. His duties included lobbying for sanctions against the Russian economy, as well as the arrangement of funding toward Poroshenko’s army.

Let me start at the beginning.

In August 2014, two political pranksters by the names of Vladimir Krasnov and Aleksei Stoliarov (most recently pranking Elton John in his conversation with ‘Putin’), were involved in a covert investigation over the imposition of Mikhail Saakashvili to the seat of Governor in Odessa, Ukraine.   The pranksters, implanted into the existing administration, had asked Mr. Saakashvii to release the names of his contacts in the US Department of State.

The pranksters, through a number of clever moves and handshakes, managed to convince the runaway-Georgian ex-president in the genuine nature of their discussion with him.  Mr. Saakashvilli gave the name of Senator John McCain as his advisor.

As part of this operation, and with Saakashvili’s exclusive contact details, Mr. Aleksei Stoliarov, posing as Mr. Arsen Avakov (Ukraine’s Minister of Internal Affairs and Poroshenko’s right hand man) spoke to Mr. Marcus Micheli. This took place at the end of 2014, but it is not until Mr. Micheli was on his way to be the General Consul to Ekaterinbrug, that the pranksters forwarded me the recording. (August 2015).

In his conversation with “Mr. Avakov”, Mr. Micheli speaks in his role as colleague of the esteemed professor of International Relations, Charles Kupchan (formerly at Georgetown University.) Mr. Kupchan is also Director of European Affairs at the US National Security Council.

The National Security Council is the department responsible for their detailed recommendations toward sanctions against the Russian economy. Through this use of sanctions, Kupchan had personally invited the world to isolate the Russian economy on the official Council website. He emphasized that the situation in Ukraine will provoke internal pressure on President Putin. The use of sanctions was, in his eyes, a suitable strategy to weaken the Russian state.

The commentary was dated 29 August 2014, from the office of National Security Council Press Secretary – Caitlin Hayden, just prior to President Obama’s visit to Estonia and Wales on the 2nd and 4th September 2014. It is known that Charles Kupchan oversees the events in Europe at large, while Micheli those in Ukraine.

Micheli is well versed with the region, his work experience dates back to his postings to Moscow between 1992 and 1994, as well as between 2002 and 2004. Between 1994-1996 he was located in Warsaw; 1996-1999 in Kiev; 2000-2001 in Sarajevo; 2007–2009 in Podgorica, 2009-2012 in Kishinev.

Team Kupchan is also well connected to Hillary Clinton. Mr. Saakashvilli was quoted as saying, that these people are the more influential of his advisors in Washington.

The conversation between prankster Stoliarov and Kupchan’s office took place one week after Petro Poroshenko’s address in the United States Congress.

Aleksei Stoliarov did not reach Kupchan in the office when he called, but instead landed in the hands of his accomplice Mr. Micheli, who without a doubt in his mind assumed Minister Avakov was on the other end. In the conversation, Mikeli openly discussed increased funding toward the armament of Petro Poroshenko’s army against the resistance movements in the country’s east – the Donbass. Micheli was well positioned to speak on this topic, as it was him who was lobbying the US State Department towards armament.

A little earlier than that, in May 2014, the US government had provided $1 billion dollars for the initial armament of Poroshenko’s army. The first allocation of weaponry did not go to plan – Kiev’s army had been surrounded by the DPR militia, formerly ordinary residents of the Donbass. They had no choice but to release much of the US funded weaponry to the self organised militias of the Donbass region. In this way, the new wave of mobilization required more funding. In September 2014, the Ukrainian authorities received another $320 million dollars.

Poroshenko then, was not lying in his address in the 70th session of the General Assembly of the United Nations, where he said that “the war in Ukraine costs $5 million dollars a day.” With this calculation in mind, the $1 billion should have lasted 200 days, or around 6 months. This is as accurate as clockwork, with the first batch in May 2014 and second in November 2014.

Today, Marcus Micheli is a well-known lobbyist and an influential person in the White House. Why is he in Ekaterinburg? While I have no insight into the workings of the White House, I do have the following information for us to ponder over.

  • Ekaterinburg is known for being a target location of the US State Department for the preparation of a social movement
  • The State Department has been involved in Ekaterinburg for over 20 years in one way or another – creating an active network of agents that consist of local opposition, some of which are in the elite/ moneyed ranks.
  • An orchestrated and predetermined weakening of the region’s economy seems to provide sufficient reasoning toward the launch of an opposition movement here
  • Micheli has spent his entire working career in Europe, including a stint during a colour revolution, when he was part of the US diplomatic mission to Moldova 2009, “the twitter revolution.”
  • As part of his role in the National Council on Security, Micheli directly oversaw the allocation of funds for Poroshenko’s army, toward the war in the Donbass. A graphically – offensive video of fire against civilians — is available here
  • Upon his arrival in Ekaterinbrug, it is known to me that Micheli began networking with those individuals that I would consider to be a part of the ‘5th column.’ (Any group of people who undermine a larger group—such as a nation—from within, usually in favor of an enemy group or nation.)

The totality of this information together leads me to believe that the US State Department’s interest toward Russia’s regions, especially that of the Ural region, is growing by the day.

Be vigilant, my friends.

This information has been forwarded to the FSB, through their official channel.

Stratfor “forecasted” US bases on Russia’s borders, now “forecasts” Russia’s fragmentation. Who will stand for Russia?

Posted on Fort Russ

Je suis Putin

March 12, 2015

Translated by Kristina RusA man like Putin: by 2018, each region will need their own Vladimir Vladimirovich.

On February 28 Stratfor posted a very interesting document – Decade Forecast: 2015-2025.

“Stratfor” is “Strategic Forecasting Inc.”, also known as the “shadow” or “private CIA” engaged in a highly profitable business of collecting, evaluating and forecasting information. “Statfor” was founded in 1996 in Austin, Texas, by George Friedman, a former professor of political science, who is now the director of the organization. Today the audience of the company is 300 thousand paid subscribers and over two million free subscribers.

Among them – Coca-Cola, which gets advice about the stability of the situation in China on the eve of the Olympic games in Beijing; the corporation “Northrup Grumman” interested about the possibility of Japan obtaining nuclear weapons; “Intel”, asking about the presence of Hezbollah in Latin America and their likelihood to carry out terrorist acts, the owner of hotel chain “Radisson”; looking for the end date of the offensive of militant Islamist groups. Also the services of Stratfor are used by “Goldman Sachs”, “Merrill Lynch”, US marine corps and Georgetown University. Each pays 20 thousand dollars a year to get their hands on a tailored confidential information.

However, Friedman has more serious clients, namely the U.S. State Department, Pentagon, and the large global financial oligarchy standing behind them.

It is easy to figure out, connecting Stratfor’s predictions with the subsequent actions of the government and the U.S. army.

Thus, on March 27 [2014], George Friedman published an article titled “American strategy after Ukraine: from Estonia to Azerbaijan”. There, among other points, particular focus was on the military strategy of the United States against Russia after the beginning of the Ukrainian crisis. In particular, Friedman rightly argued that at this point in time, NATO is not able to wage war against the Russian Federation due to the long stretch of its Western front line and the length of communications for the supply of food, fuel and ammunition for the battle units.

The solution for this problem Friedman proposed by moving military bases directly to the Russian border at several points, as the only possible condition for full deployment of a punitive campaign against Russia, which is rapidly getting out of control of the United States.

And, by the end of the year, this process took place in reality.

So, in mid-December of last year for several days the skies were closed over Zaporozhye, Kharkov and Dnepropetrovsk, and witnesses reported that a large number of transport aircraft, the type of “Hercules” and others landed in Ukrainian airports, bringing the equipment, vehicles and troops, consisting mainly of soldiers of private military companies. The numbers mentioned were about the size of a division from 10 to 15 thousand people, mostly mercenaries from PMC “Academi” (until 2009 it was called Blackwater, owned by Eric Prince, executing orders from the Pentagon).

Previously they were already seen in Donetsk, later in Mariupol. A secret NATO base was set up in  Kharkov oblast: already much has been transported by land, the masks were off and airplanes were involved. Military experts pointed out that some of the equipment and troops was moved from a military base in Hungary near Debretsen. Previously on the territory of Ukraine trains were seen with American armored vehicles, among which were BMPs Bradley, BTRs Stryker and Hummers.

Therefore, the publications of “Stratfor” should be taken seriously.

The document before us is a geopolitical forecast for the next ten years, describing the future of all continents. I will not go into all the details – it has already been done by many analysts.

I will focus on key phrases and what I read between the lines. The article clearly articulates the strategic objective of establishing administrative control over Russia by way of its fragmentation – federalization. Here is a quote:

“To the West from Russia, Poland, Hungary and Romania will try to return the regions once lost in the battle with the Russians. They will attempt to annex Ukraine and Belarus. In the South, Russia will lose the ability to control the North Caucasus; Central Asia will begin to destabilize. In the North-West, Karelia will try to return to Finland. In the Far East the coastal regions will start to conduct an independent policy, more associated with Japan, China and the United States, than with Moscow. Other regions will not necessarily seek autonomy, but may get it against their will. Main idea: there will not be a revolt against Moscow, on the contrary, the weakening Moscow will leave a vacuum. In this vacuum the separate fragments of the former Russian Federation will exist.

[Wait, is he talking about Ukraine!? – KR]

This will lead to a major crisis in the next decade. Russia possesses a vast nuclear arsenal, scattered across the country. The decline of the Moscow power will raise the question of control over these missiles and about how to guarantee restraint from their application. This will be a huge challenge for the United States. Washington is the only power, that can solve this problem…”

[So, America throws all its might to destabilize Russia, the end result of which will be loose nukes – Bravo! – KR]

Next, “Stratfor” talks about a necessity to create a stable and economically sustainable government in the nuclear regions, in order to neutralize the missiles by non-military means.

[Only America, the policeman of the world, can be a responsible owner of nuclear weapons – KR]

In the final part of the study the private intelligence agents laid down the fundamental principle of the American doctrine in relation to Russia:

“The US has entered the Cold war early, and (at least in Europe) did not suffer any losses. This is the guiding principle of the American foreign policy, brought almost to perfection: if a hegemon emerges in Europe [I can tell they are fans of Brzezinsky – KR], the US intervenes as early as possible, as during the Cold war, building alliances and positioning troops on the main defensive positions. Now this is done in relation to Russia. <…> The Americans will try to build a system of alliances, parallel to NATO, from the Baltic States to Bulgaria, and engage as many countries as possible. They will try to lure Turkey into the union and stretch it to Azerbaijan. The troops will be send to these countries in proportion to threats.”

[Imagine if Russia tried to enter into military unions with Canada and Mexico? – KR]

The State Department is well aware that under Vladimir Putin the task of federalization is not feasible, as all rehearsals and attempts of Maidan were ineffective and did not find support in society. In addition, the effectiveness of security forces that provide physical order in the capital is undeniable.

Therefore the main task now is to implement technologies of soft power, which include attempts to undermine the economy, the formation of anti-government public opinion through mass media, organizing round tables and conferences, work at universities and nudging the authorities in the provinces to gain more independence from Moscow.

“Stratfor” writes about this: “Given the structure of the Federation, in which profits from exports go first to Moscow, and only then are redirected to local governments, the regions receive a very different amount of this profit. This will lead to the repetition of the Soviet experience in the 1980’s and the 1990’s, when Moscow has lost the ability to maintain state infrastructure. All this will cause the regions to seek solutions independently, forming formal and informal autonomous associations. Economic ties between Moscow and the periphery will weaken.”

Now let us remember that the first public statement after the accession to the post of mayor of Yekaterinburg, Yevgeny Roizman, concerned “injustice that the money goes first to Moscow and then is distributed”, and subsequently a group of people close to Roizman held protests under the slogan “Stop feeding Moscow”. Among the protesters great activity was shown by young people from a foreign agent-NGO “Golos” (“Voice”), headed by the famous “color revolution technologist” Marko Ivkovich from Serbia, who was banned from entering Russia by FSB in 2012.

The fact is, in Russia the vertical of power now ends at the post of a governor, which allows municipalities to implement policies, different from the state, to form their own budgets controlling a city, using large funds to protect their business with security forces and mass media. At the start of the reform of local self-government, which should continue the vertical of power to the cities, the described system will be broken, and the American diplomats will capitalize on the resistance of local “princelings”.

[Not always will a region flourish if it is given more authority from the center. Instead the inherent culture of corruption in Russia may flourish under such arrangement, which will please Russia’s enemies. But of course local authorities will always demand more power and more control over financial flows – KR]

A key objective of the US is to beat Vladimir Putin at 2018 election, for which the entire arsenal of available technologies will be engaged –  marches, lowering of oil prices, political killings – we may likely see, for example, the general director and owner of the anti-Russian TV channel “Dozhd” (“Rain”), Natalia Sindeeva, shot with a bullet with minted initials of Vladimir Putin. History teaches us that often after a strong ruler comes a weak one, and Americans are well aware of it!

An important role, as conceived by the US, is given to the young generation born in 2000, who will turn 18 in 2018, and who had never lived without Putin. Who will they vote for? They did not, as the author of these lines and most of their readers, witness the bloody shoot-outs and cars exploding on the streets in the 90’s, total racketeering of business, pervasive corruption, deliberate destruction of industry, agriculture, army, non-payment of salaries for several months. Today in universities they are told romantic stories about the “real freedom” of that era, although it is appropriate to call it a time of chaos and anarchy. However, in certain ways they are synonymous with the concept of freedom.

In case US looses the next election for the President of Russian Federation, a special tool is prepared: actions of disobedience will take place across the regions, and their exit from the Russian Federation will begin, writes “Stratfor”. Rostislav Ishchenko, president of the Center for System Analysis and Forecasting, in his article “It rips at the weakest spot” rightly notes: the revolutionaries in Yekaterinburg don’t even have to storm anything. The municipal authorities already are infiltrated with American collaborators, and the government of the region will not be able to immediately react – it is extremely passive and does not have the political will, and its staff consists of the officials who are keen to outlive one governor after another.

What should be our next steps?

First, we need absolute unification of the country, all the people – around the President and commander-in-chief. I am convinced, that the course taken by Vladimir Putin is completely justified. It assumes full sovereignty in all spheres of life, the priority of the interests of Russia as a determinant of state strategy, productive, mutually beneficial cooperation with countries in Latin America and Asia, uniting them around Russia as a new pole of power on Earth. This course is implemented competently, firmly and consistently, and also accurately. We must strongly support it, thwarting any attempts to split the society from the President by the liberals from the fifth column.

Secondly, the authority of the FSB, whose job is to defend the constitutional rights of citizens and territorial integrity of the state, containing anti-Russian activity, today is clearly lagging behind the demands of the time and the situation in the state, as well as the laws that ensure their authority.

I am talking about such precedents as activities of the notorious member of the Ekaterinburg City Duma and a friend of Yevgeny Roizman – Konstantin Kiselev. Professor of the Institute of Philosophy and Law of the Ural State University visited the U.S. and Kiev, lectured on “the utility of” Maidan and positively noting the “contribution” of Yarosh and Turchinov into “the building of the Ukrainian nation”, and even prepared an online conference with the leader of the “Right Sector” in Yekaterinburg.

In this situation, the power structures of Ekaterinburg looked completely toothless: formally no existing article of the criminal code of the Russian Federation applied to the activities of the “political scientist”. If Professor Kiselev called for direct appeals to overthrow the government and seize government buildings or promoted fascism – he could be subjected to the article for extremism, but smart and cautious MP never allowed himself to go that far. Each student, whom the liberal teacher pushed to the “right” frame of thinking, had to make the last step on his own and arrive at the desired conclusion. And the unauthorized contacts with foreign diplomats and agents of Western intelligence, positive coverage of color revolutions, is not a reason to start investigation under the current laws.

Numerous conductors of implementation in Russia of Western values continue their work – “RPR-Parnas”, “Progress Party”, “Civic platform”, “Yabloko”, non-profit organizations “Memorial”, “Voice”, “The Sakharov’s Center”, which this way or another are involved in the preparation of anti-government marches and destabilization of the population, undermining the image of the government, and numerous liberal media supporting them, distorting reality, causing panic. Their activities should be stopped.

If we take the example, as demanded by the liberals, from the United States of America, there after the September 11 terrorist attacks the authority of security structures was expanded. May be it’s our turn? Vladimir Putin has long been waiting for the public opinion to ripen. We already have a full “set” – preparation of color revolutions, assassinations, corruption and the coalition with Americans at local levels. Enough signals to act.

In reality, if we are to withstand the destructive forces, then at a minimum, we should not be weaker. If our special agencies will concede, we will lose in the struggle, and the CIA has historically always been stronger, almost unlimited in their scope of work and generously funded.

We need new legislative initiatives, including the introduction into the criminal code of definitions of activities of the fifth column. Together with public institutions, it is necessary to define appropriate measures of deterrence and punishment.

And the third and main conclusion, we need to start thinking about how to form a new generation of patriotic politicians at all levels of government. Already the US is trying to install their people at key positions. They need to be pushed out, but we need the human resources, and they need to be selected and educated.

To bet the political success only on Vladimir Putin, first of all, puts an enormous strain on him, and secondly, poses a security threat to him personally. We need to appoint its own Putin to each region and municipality, and then any attempts to overthrow the President will lose sense – because his course will be clearly planned and steadily continued at each level.

Our main motto should be: “Today we are all Putin”.