From Strategic Stability
Report # 93. Lugansk People’s Republic is fully liberated by July 3rd
July 4, 2022
1. Russian Defense Minister reported to the President
On July 3rd Russia’s Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu reported to President Vladimir Putin on the liberation of the Lugansk People’s Republic (LPR), the Russian MoD announced.
The ministry added the Russian Armed Forces and the People’s Militia of the LPR have established full control over Lisichansk and a number of nearby settlements, the largest of which are Belogorovka, Novodruzhesk, Maloryazantsevo, and Belaya Gora.
On July 4th Sergey Shoigu reported to President Vladimir Putin some more details of this operation codenamed “Gorsky Cauldron” during their vis-à-vis meeting in the Kremlin.
During this operation that lasted two weeks Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) lost 5469 men, including 2218 KIA and 3251 WIA; 196 tanks and APC, 12 combat aircraft and one helicopter, 69 drones, 97 MRLS, 166 long-range field artillery and mortar systems. During a retreat from Lisichansk AFU have abandoned 39 capable tanks and APC, 11 artillery and mortar pieces, supplied by NATO nations to kill civilians in Donbass as well 48 ATW Javelin and NLAW, and 18 AAD Stinger.
AFU completely lost a chain of command and control system with three AFU Brigades and one Brigade of the Territorial Defense
In Donetsk People’s Republic 54th Mechanised Brigade of the AFU has lost over 60 percent of personnel and equipment near Maryinka during last several days. The rest of the personnel is demoralised and refuse to fulfil combat tasks.
President Zelensky gradually loosing popularity amongst Ukrainians publicly noted that the Russian artillery is capable of using tens of thousands of artillery shells in one section of the front, which the Ukrainian Armed Forces cannot afford.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba has said that he doesn’t see how NATO might change its stance on Kiev’s accession to the bloc in the near future. “Ukraine still pursues Euro-Atlantic integration, but I do not see the potential in the near future for NATO to change its position in a way the European Union did, and to take concrete steps to ensure Ukraine’s accession to the Alliance,” he told local media.
Is this a symbol of frustration?
The territory in front of the British embassy in Moscow will soon be officially named after the Lugansk People’s Republic, the Moscow authorities said on July 4th. Earlier it has been decided to rename the area in front of the U.S. Embassy in the Russian capital as “The Donetsk People’s Republic Square”.
2. Kiev still shells the DPR that does not want to live under cruel regime
As of July 4th 2022, 997 civilians, including 77 children, have been wounded to varying degrees of severity in the territory of the DPR since the escalation began, according to the DPR authorities’ data released at the News-Front website [ https://en.news-front.info/2022/07/04/in-138-days-of-escalation-215-civilians-killed-in-dpr-jccc/%5D.
During last 38 days of escalation, the Joint Coordination Center (JCC) recorded 5,264 instances of shelling, including 4,936 involving the use of heavy weapons, many of them being supplied by the USA and NATO. The enemy fired a total of 4,688 rockets, artillery and mortar shells of large calibres.
5114 residential buildings, 1106 civilian infrastructure facilities, including 66 medical institutions, 207 educational institutions, 395 social welfare facilities, 31 critical infrastructure facilities, 407 electricity, water and gas supply facilities and 591 vehicles were damaged.
Ukraine has fired HIMARS rocket artillery shells at the city of Snezhnoe in eastern DPR, the republic representatives to the JCC have indicated. “According to military experts of the DPR JCC, the enemy, situated in the area of settlement of Konstantinovka, launched missiles from the M142 HIMARS MLRS supplied to the Ukrainian Armed Forces by NATO countries at the city of Snezhnoye,” the press service of the JCC said in a statement on July 4th. The USA has sent eight M142 HIMARS launchers to Ukraine.
3. Kiev expanded its attacks against continental Russian territory
At Sunday night (July 3rd) from 03.00 to 03.30 AM (Moscow time), the Kiev regime launched an intentional attack by Tochka-U ballistic missiles fitted with cluster munitions and Tu-143 Reys unmanned aerial vehicles at the residential areas of Belgorod and Kursk, continental Russia, that have no military facilities.
Russian air defence units have destroyed all the 3 Tochka-U ballistic missiles launched by Ukrainian nationalist at Belgorod. Fragments of one of the destroyed Ukrainian missiles fell down at residential buildings in the city. In addition, Russian air defence means have destroyed 2 Ukrainian Tu-143 Reys unmanned aerial vehicles charged with explosives while approaching Kursk.
Three individuals died and five persons were injured as a result of the emergency in Belgorod, Governor of the Belgorod Region Vyacheslav Gladkov said.
U.S. military and civilian spy satellites have been spotted above Belgorod and Kursk three days before the Ukrainian attacks.
4. NATO has ‘been preparing since 2014 to use Ukraine for proxy conflict with Russia
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on June 29 revealed to reporters that NATO’s push into Eastern Europe since 2014 was done specifically with Russia in mind. “The reality is also that we have been preparing for this since 2014,” he said. “That is the reason that we have increased our presence in the eastern part of the Alliance, why NATO allies have started to invest more in defense, and why we have increased [our] readiness.”
5. Russian National Guard Found Evidence of OSCE Observers’ Work for Ukrainian Intelligence
The special forces of the Russian National Guard found in Kherson evidence of the work of OSCE observers in the interests of the Ukrainian intelligence, the agency said on July 4th. “The special forces of the Russian National Guard found documents of the OSCE international monitoring organization in the house of the former head of the SBU or Security Service of Ukraine department in the Kherson Region, General Vyacheslav Savchenko, which testify to cooperation with the Ukrainian intelligence services,” the statement says.
“The special forces of the Russian National Guard seized a handwritten diagram of the locations of the units of the Russian Armed Forces in the Republic of Crimea, in the territories of the Rostov, Smolensk, Belgorod and Voronezh Regions. This once again confirms the conduct by the mission staff of intelligence activities in the interests of the Ukrainian intelligence services, as well as the intelligence services of the NATO countries,” the statement says. The documents have been submitted to relevant authorities. They prove long-term and close cooperation of the international organization with the leadership of Ukraine, which went beyond the official framework and declared tasks, the National Guard noted.
6. Kaliningrad exclave has plans to respond to Lithuanian blockade
Authorities of the Kaliningrad Region (KR) submitted a plan of possible retaliatory measures to ban transit of sanctioned goods through Lithuania to the Government of Russia and the Presidential Administration of Russia. This was announced by the Governor of the KR, Anton Alikhanov, in an interview with the newspaper Vedomosti.
According to him, the proposed set of countermeasures may create a lot of problems for Vilnius. The head of the region has not specified what exactly the proposals are, saying that the proposed “measures of various nature”. He only noted that his Administration has “something to respond to economically, and quite critically for Lithuania.”
Copy of the Victory banner hoisted over Reichstag in Berlin in 1945
raised over Lugansk on July 3rd 2022 as a symbol of liberation of the LPR from Ukrainian eight-years’ long shelling, Nazis horror
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Report № 94. New figures related to the SMO announced
July 6, 2022
1. The SMO progress has been identified
National Centre for State Defence Control of the Russian Federation, under the leadership of the head of the military Department, General of the Army Sergei Shoigu, held a teleconference with the leadership of the Armed Forces on July 5th.
Opening the meeting, the Minister of Defence briefed the participants on the progress of the special military operation or SMO.
The Russian Armed Forces, together with units of the Lugansk and Donetsk People’s Republics’ militias, have fully liberated the Lugansk People’s Republic. In the past two weeks alone, 670 square kilometres of its territory have been liberated.
At the same time, according to Sergei Shoigu, the collective West, hoping to prolong the conflict in Ukraine, continues large-scale arms deliveries to the Kiev regime. More than 28,000 tonnes of military supplies have already been delivered to the country. Some foreign arms supplied by the West to Ukraine are reportedly spreading across the Middle East region and also reaching the black market.
A successful offensive by the Russian army and units of the people’s republics has reduced the number of foreign mercenaries and private military companies operating in the country. In the last ten days, 170 mercenaries have been killed, 99 have refused to take part in hostilities and have left Ukrainian territory.
A range of measures are being implemented to ensure the safety of navigation in the waters of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. The Russian Armed Forces have created two humanitarian corridors for the movement of civilian maritime vessels a long time ago. The mine threat in the waters of the port of Mariupol has been completely eliminated.
Engineering troops are clearing mines and explosives from the territories of the Donetsk and Lugansk people’s republics. More than 3,700 hectares have now been checked. 46,379 explosive objects have been detected and deactivated.
Russian troops are providing comprehensive support to the population of the liberated cities. “Today, the main priorities for us are preserving the lives and health of subordinate personnel and excluding threats to the security of civilians,” said Sergei Shoigu, adding that the special military operation will continue until the tasks set by the Supreme Commander-in-Chief have been completed.
The minister outlined that current and future conscripts are not being sent to the zone of the SMO.
The Minister then outlined the thematic issues of the meeting. These include the progress of certain development work under the State Armament Programme for the benefit of the Aerospace Forces. In particular, the development by the Vympel Design Bureau of medium- and short-range air-to-air guided missiles. These missiles are designed to equip the modern Su-57 and other carriers. The use of the new weaponry will improve the combat effectiveness of carrier aircraft in air-to-air confrontation and increase the range of engageable aerial targets, including small and stealth technology. This year, the plan is to complete state testing of the missiles and put the first production batches into service.
2. Russia Warns OPCW of possible provocations by Ukraine
Moscow has sent a diplomatic note to the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) saying that Kiev is preparing a staged provocation with the use of chemical weapons at Slavyanskaya thermal power plant in the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), also warning about other possible provocations in Nikolaev and Kharkov, the Russian permanent representative to the organization, Alexander Shulgin, said on July 6.
“We have already sent a corresponding note to the technical [OPCW] secretariat, informed about the upcoming provocations in Nikolaevka, also notified that Ukrainian nationalists are going to organize provocations in other places such as in Nikolaev and Kharkov. In total, over two dozen notes have already been sent to the technical secretariat,” Shulgin told the Russian Rossiya 24 broadcaster.
The official also said that the OPCW confirmed the receipt of the data, and that the organization has been distributing it among the participating countries.
On July 5th, the head of the Russian National Defense Control Center, Col. Gen. Mikhail Mizintsev, said that Kiev was preparing a staged provocation in the DPR with a use of chlorine to accuse Moscow of alleged indiscriminate attacks targeting chemically hazardous objects.
3. HIMARS are knocked down
Russian forces destroyed two US-made rocket launchers in Donbass, the defense ministry said on July 6.
“In the area of the settlement of Malotaranovka in the Donetsk People’s Republic, high-precision air-launched missiles destroyed two US-made HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems and two ammunition depots for them,” the Russian military said in a statement.
The US provided Kiev with eight High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) and ammunition since the beginning of the Russian military offensive in Ukraine, according to a Pentagon fact sheet published on Tuesday.
At the end of June, the Lugansk People’s Republic (LPR) said that an М142 HIMARS had been used by Ukrainian forces in Donbass for the first time.