From Strategic Stability
Report # 104. Medvedev: Ukraine may confront with the Doomsday
July 18, 2022
1. Ex-President Medvedev reminded Ukraine of the Doomsday
Some top-ranking Ukrainian politicians are trying to threaten the Russian Federation, meaning an attack on the Crimea, including the Crimean Bridge, but if something like this happens, then judgment day will come for them all, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev said at a meeting with veterans in Volgograd.
“Individual exalted, bloody clowns who pop up there from time to time with some statements are also trying to threaten us, meaning the attack on Crimea and so on. In this regard, I want to say that it is quite obvious that they understand the consequences of such statements. And the consequences are obvious that if something like this happens, for all of them there, the Day of Judgment [Doomsday] will come at once. Very fast and heavy. It will be very difficult to take cover,” Medvedev stressed.
“In some ways they envy us, our capabilities, in some ways, they probably fear us, but the most important thing for them is that conceptual task that does not change from year to year and passes from one government to another,” Medvedev concluded.
2. Lavrov: Germany and France ‘killed’ Minsk agreements
Berlin and Paris torpedoed the 2015 ceasefire deal for Donbass by shielding Kiev’s non-compliance, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has said in an article published in Izvestia newspaper [the full text is posted at the MFA website: «Staged incidents as the Western approach to doing politics»; July 18, 2022// https://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/1822333/%5D.
Russia, Germany and France brokered the 2015 Minsk agreements between Ukraine and Donbass, which were designed to put an end to hostilities. But according to Lavrov, Berlin and Paris failed to ensure Kiev’s compliance.
The Russian Foreign Minister noted that former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko admitted the Minsk agreements meant nothing for Kiev, and Ukraine used them only to buy time. Lavrov said: “If anyone doubted that the Minsk Package was anything but yet another fake, Petr Poroshenko dispelled this myth by saying on June 17, 2022: “The Minsk Agreements did not mean anything to us, and we had no intention to carry them out… our goal was to remove the threat we faced… and win time in order to restore economic growth and rebuild the armed forces. We achieved this goal. Mission accomplished for the Minsk Agreements.”
Lavrov also mentioned that in December 2019, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had a chance to fulfil the Minsk agreements at the so-called Normandy format summit held in Paris. After negotiations with leaders of Russia, Germany and France, Zelensky pledged to resolve issues surrounding the special status of Donbass. “Of course, he did nothing, and Berlin and Paris were shielding him once again,” he noted.
Lavrov added: “In December 2019, Zelensky got a chance to carry out the Minsk Agreements following the Normandy format summit in Paris. In the outcome document adopted at the highest level, the Ukrainian President undertook to resolve matters related to the special status of Donbass. Of course, he did not do anything, while Berlin and Paris once again covered up for him. The document and all the publicity accompanying its adoption turned out to be no more than a fake narrative promoted by Ukraine and the West to win some time for supplying more weapons to the Kiev regime, which follows Petr Poroshenko’s logic to the letter”.
Comment: So, President Zelensky and his predecessor Poroshenko publicly admitted that they never had any plans to implement the Minsk accord. They both used the arrangement to get more offensive weapons from the USA and NATO, and to enhance the Armed Forces of Ukraine, preparing them to launch the third large-scale aggression against population Donbass who decided not to live inside a neo-Nazi, undemocratic Ukraine.
Lavrov concluded: “If members of the western alliance are unable to live according to this principle, are not ready to build a truly universal architecture of equal security and cooperation, they should leave everyone alone, stop using threats and blackmail to recruit those who want to live on their own wits and acknowledge the right to freedom of choice by independent self-respecting countries. This is what democracy is all about, the real democracy, not one played out on a shabbily built political stage”.
3. Dmitry Kuleba actually confirmed Zelensky‘s obstruction to the talks
Kiev will be ready for talks with Moscow only after the latter’s “defeat on the battlefield,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba said.
“Let us first change the situation on the front, and then we will speak. Everyone understands that the talks are directly linked with the situation on the front. I say it to all partners: Russia is to sit down at the negotiating table only after the defeat on the battlefield. Otherwise, it will be a language of ultimatums again,” he said in an interview with Forbes Ukraine, which came out on July 18.
According to the Ukrainian top diplomat, President Vladimir Zelensky has a principled position on this matter. “He doesn’t rule out possible talks, but there are no grounds for them now,” Kuleba noted.
The Russian-Ukrainian talks have been conducted since February 28. Several meetings were organized in Belarus, then the sides continued negotiations in the videoconference format. The last direct round of talks was held in Istanbul on March 29.
On April 12, Russian President Vladimir Putin told journalists that Kiev had deviated from the previous agreements and drove the process into a dead end. On April 20, Putin’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov said that Moscow had handed over to Kiev a clearly-worded draft document on agreements and was waiting for a response.
On July 18 the Presidential aide Yury Ushakov stated that so far, there is no interest on the part of Kiev, as well as on the part of Western states to conduct the talks with Moscow. The Ukrainian delegation has not established any contacts with its Russian counterpart since the Istanbul round, he added.
4. LPR will send the fragments of U.S. HIMARS MLRS to the Russian IC
In an interview with RIA Novosti, an officer of the LPR representative office in the JCCC, Aleksey Getmansky, said that, if necessary, the agency would transfer fragments of American HIMARS MLRS, including those found at the site of attacks by Kyiv troops in Alchevsk, to investigators of the RF IC [Russian Investigation Committee], as evidence of war crimes committed by the Ukrainian Army, Aleksey Getmansky, an officer of the representative office, told RIA Novosti.
Comment: committed not only by the Ukrainian Army, but committed also by the USA who has supplied such barbaric weapon used against civilians in Donbass. The USA became a direct participant in atrocities conducted in this area.
“These are the fragments found at the scene of the incident in the city of Alchevsk, in this case, these are stabilizer blocks with plumage fired from the M142 HIMARS MLRS as a result of the shelling of the city of Alchevsk.
We are cooperating with the Investigation Committee of the Russian Federation, we are assisting them in removing fragments and fragments of any from the scene of the incident, when there is already a trial and a tribunal over Ukrainian criminals, this will all be an evidence base”, said the mission officer.
5. News from battlefields
By July 17 high-precision attacks launched by Russian Aerospace Forces at a provisional base of 92nd Mechanised Brigade deployed in Chuguyev (Kharkov region) have resulted in the elimination of up to 200 servicemen of 2nd and 3rd battalions, as well as over 10 armoured vehicles.
In view of considerable losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), there is an increasing number of desertion cases. A rifle company of 58th Battalion from 104th Separate Territorial Defence Brigade operationally subordinated to the commander of 108th Battalion from 10th Mountain Assault Brigade that operated near Verkhnekamentskoye (Donetsk People’s Republic) completely abandoned its positions and withdrew towards unknown destination.
High-precision long-range air-based missiles have destroyed one depot in one of the buildings of an industrial entity in Odessa that storaged Harpoon anti-ship missiles delivered to Ukraine by NATO countries.
High-precision ground-based armament has destroyed one launching ramp and one reloading vehicle of U.S.-manufactured HIMARS MLRS deployed near Krasnoarmeysk (Donetsk People’s Republic).
Attack launched at the base of 97th Battalion from 60th Mechanised Infantry Brigade of the AFU deployed near Novodanilovka (Zaporozhye Region) has resulted in the elimination of up to 65 nationalists and over 10 special motor vehicles.
In addition, high-precision attacks of Russian Aerospace Forces have eliminated 4 command posts, including those of a battalion from 59th Mechanised Infantry Brigade near Zelyony Gay (Nikolayev Region) and of 242nd Battalion from 241st Territorial Defence Brigade near Dergachi (Kharkov Region), 6 munitions depots near Bondarnoye and Vasyukovka (Donetsk People’s Republic), Malinovka (Zaporozhye Region), Chervonoye (Sumy Region), as well as 19 areas of AFU manpower and military equipment, including 4 provisional bases of foreign mercenaries in Konstantinovka (Kharkov Region) and Dzerzhinsk (Donetsk People’s Republic).
Within counter-battery warfare, 1 MRLS platoon, 9 Giantsint-B artillery howitzer and D-30 gun platoons near Verkhnekamenskoye, Serebryanka, Bondarnoye, Dronovka and Zvanovka (Donetsk People’s Republic), as well as artillery units at their firing positions in 107 areas.
Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery have neutralised 21 command posts, 189 AFU manpower and military equipment concentration areas.
Fighter aviation of Russian Aerospace Forces have shot down 1 Ukrainian Mi-17 helicopter near Slavyansk (Donetsk People’s Republic).
Russian air defence means have destroyed one Su-25 airplane of Ukrainian Air Forces near Velikaya Kamyshevakha (Kharkov region) and one Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicle near Bolshiye Prokhody (Kharkov region).
One Ukrainian Tochka-U ballistic missile has been intercepted near Dmitrenko (Kherson region), 8 projectiles launched by Uragan and HIMARS MLRS have been intercepted near Izyum (Kharkov region), Tavriya (Zaporozhye Region) and Alchevsk (Lugansk People’s Republic).
High-precision air-based missiles in Kostantinovka, Donetsk People’s Republic, have neutralized temporary deployment point of mercenaries of so-called Ukrainian “Foreign Legion”. The attacks have resulted in the elimination of more than 250 military personnel and 12 special vehicles.
By July 18 as a result of high-precision long-range air-based weaponry strike on temporary deployment point of battalion of 118th Territorial Defence Brigade of AFU in Vitovo, Cherkasskaya Region, up to 60 nationalists, 2 multiple rocket launchers and 4 artillery mounts have been destroyed.
A facility used by Ukraine’s “foreign legion” in Donbass has been targeted in a Russian missile strike that killed up to 250 mercenaries and destroyed a number of military vehicles, Moscow’s Ministry of Defense announced on July 18. “A temporary mercenary deployment point of the so-called Ukrainian ‘foreign legion’ was hit with high-precision air-launched missiles in the settlement of Konstantinovka in the Donetsk People’s Republic,” the ministry claimed. “Up to 250 foreign militants, seven armored vehicles, as well as 12 special purpose vehicles were taken out,” it added.
More than 10 Ukrainian Grad MLRS and 8 armoured vehicles have been destroyed near Udachnoye railway station in Donetsk People’s Republic.
Also, two Ukrainian Mi-8 helicopters have been destroyed and two more helicopters suffered significant damage as a result of rocket artillery strike on AFU field airfield near Novyi Donbass, Donetsk People’s Republic.
As part of counter-battery warfare, 2 batteries of Uragan MLRS near Predtechino, 3 platoons of Grad MLRS, 14 artillery platoons of Hyacinth-B howitzers and D-30 guns near Seversk, Verkhnekamenskoye, Serebryanka, Dronovka and Zvanovka, Donetsk People’s Republic have been neutralized.
Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery have hit 14 command posts, including 28th Mechanized Brigade near Nikolaev, 60th Infantry Brigade near Novoaleksandrovka in Zaporozhye Region and 15th Battalion of 58th AFU Motorized Infantry Brigade in Pokrovskoye in Donetsk People’s Republic, as well as 286 areas of AFU manpower and military equipment concentration.
One Buk-M1 self-propelled launcher near Kramatorsk in Donetsk People’s Republic, 3 depots with missile and artillery weapons and one fuel depot near Novoaleksandrovka in Zaporozhye Region have been destroyed.
Russian air defence means have shot down 6 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles near Peschanoye, Chervonyi Oskol, Liptsy in Kharkov Region, Korsun’ in Donetsk People’s Republic and Novokamenka in Kherson Region.
Two shells of Uragan MLRS have been also intercepted near Stakhanov in Lugansk People’s Republic.
In total, by July 18, 257 Ukrainian airplanes and 142 helicopters, 1,564 unmanned aerial vehicles, 356 anti-aircraft missile systems, 4,099 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 759 multiple launch rocket systems, 3,157 field artillery and mortars, as well as 4,392 units of special military vehicles were destroyed during the operation