From Strategic Stability
…according to available information, as part of a trip to Ukraine from August 17 to 19, 2022, UN Secretary-General Guterres plans to visit the city of Odessa. By this date, the Armed Forces of Ukraine intend to stage a provocation of a man-made disaster at the Zaporozhye NPP, which consists in a radiation leak, the destruction of the integrity of the nuclear waste storage facility and the decommissioning of the nuclear power plant reactor into a state of emergency.
Report # 127. Russian MoD statement on the Kiev’s plans to destroy ZNPP
August 18, 2022
- On August 18, 2022 Russian MoD spokesman made the following statement concerning Kiev’s plans to destroy Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP):
“On August 19, 2022 the Kiev regime is preparing another provocation at Zaporozhye NPP during the visit of UN Secretary-General António Guterres to Ukraine, as a result of which the Russian Federation will be blamed for creating a man-made disaster at the power plant.
In order to prepare for the provocation, the command of Dnepro operational-tactical group is deploying radiation observation posts near Zaporozhye by August 19. Also, the command is organizing training exercises for units of 108th Territorial Defence Brigade, 44th Artillery Brigade and military units deployed at Zaporozhye on measures to be taken in conditions of radioactive contamination of the area.
Besides, units of 704th RCBD [Radiological, Chemical and Bacteriological Defense] Regiment of AFU are to complete concentration in Zaporozhye area by August 19,2022 and be ready for fixing the accident at Zaporizhzhia NPP as well as for carrying out a set of measures for demonstration of supposedly liquidation of its consequences.
Units of 44th Artillery Brigade of AFU are planning to launch artillery strikes on the territory of ZNPP from firing positions located in Nikopol on August 19.
The Russian Armed Forces will be blamed for their consequences.
Ukrainian leadership has repeatedly spread rumours that Russian troops have occupied the nuclear power plant and are shelling AFU with long-range artillery systems while shielding themselves behind NPP.
We would like to point out that the Russian troops have no heavy weapons either on the territory of the plant or in the surrounding areas. Only security units are stationed there.
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are taking all necessary measures to ensure the security of Zaporozhye NPP”.
- Illustrative material to the statement
Slide 1: Briefing according to the results of the analysis of a possible provocation at Zaporozhye NPP (title only)
The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation is conducting an analysis of the development of the situation at the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant.
Starting from July 18, 2022, the station has been subjected to systematic shelling by the armed forces of Ukraine from multiple launch rocket systems, cannon artillery and using unmanned aerial vehicles.
As of August 18, 2022, that is one month later, Kiev implemented 12 attacks, during which more than 50 artillery shells and 5 kamikaze drones with high explosive were recorded on the territory of the ZNPP.
The Russian Defense Ministry conducted an investigation and established that the strikes were delivered from the direction of the settlements of the cities of Marganets and Nikopol.
As a result of the shelling, auxiliary support systems for the station were damaged, as well as life support facilities located in the city of Energodar.
According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, the Ukrainian side, together with their handlers from the USA, is trying to play the card, causing, in their opinion, a minor accident at the nuclear power plant and, thereby, disrupting the normal and safe operation of the NPP, blaming in this Russia.
The Ukrainian side has repeatedly stated that the strikes on the station are carried out by the Russian Armed Forces, and Russian heavy weapons are located on the territory of the NPP, from which shelling is carried out at the targets of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
We are ready to present real very high resolution images to the IAEA. A sample is placed on a slide, which shows that weapons, especially heavy ones, are not placed at the territory of this station. This was also stated by the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation to the UN Secretary General Guterres during recent telephone call between them.
We know that in the presence of a large number of military and commercial foreign satellites, the same information can be presented to the world community and the American side.
At the same time, the USA is hushing up objective data about the shelling and the situation at the nuclear power plant, thereby encouraging the impunity of the Kyiv regime and contributing to the possible development of a nuclear catastrophe in Europe.
I would like to note that it is no coincidence that the media widely cites the conclusions made by specialists from the U.S. Agency for Arms Control and Disarmament (Washington City, DC) and a number of other similar institutions of Western countries, and not the IAEA, which has the right to draw such conclusions, that a large-scale catastrophe at the Zaporozhye NPP is unlikely.
According to them, the thickness of the concrete shelters of its nuclear reactors is 10 meters, in addition, the station was designed and built taking into account the need to overcome the consequences of such incidents as the fall of a civilian aircraft.
At the same time, it is not excluded that a direct hit of large-caliber artillery shells in a dry spent nuclear fuel storage facility will lead to radioactive contamination of the area within a radius of up to 20 km, and an emergency at a nuclear reactor maximum – up to 30 km. At the same time, it is emphasized that the risks of the spread of radiation in the territory of European countries are assessed as minimal.
Thus, according to American experts, the consequences of the nuclear incident at the Zaporozhye NPP will be limited and will not affect the territory of European countries.
That is a very wrong assessment.
At the same time, I would like to remind the UN Secretariat and the entire world community that the principal cause of the accidents at the Chernobyl NPP and the Fukushima NPP, despite the fact that in the first case there were experiments with a nuclear reactor, and in the second case, an earthquake and a tsunami, – this is a failure of support systems, power supply disruption, partial and complete blackout of cooling systems, which led to to overheating of nuclear fuel and destruction of the reactor.
As a result of the disaster at the Chernobyl NPP, the territory of more than 20 European countries was contaminated with radioactive isotopes. About 4 thousand people died from direct exposure to radiation, tens of thousands of cases of genetic deformities in newborns and hundreds of thousands of oncological diseases were recorded. Not counting the consequences of forced evacuation, up to 100 thousand people or more 5.5 million people received increased doses of radiation.
At the Fukushima nuclear power plant, only at first glance it may seem that the consequences are insignificant. Up to 500,000 people underwent a phased forced evacuation, and the consequences of the release of radioactive water into the ocean will be felt by descendants.
Unfortunately, it looks like that such case has been forgotten.
According to Russian experts, due to the dangerous actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, a similar situation may arise at the Zaporozhye NPP.
So, in case of failure of standby diesel generators and mobile pumps, in case of an emergency, the core of reactors will overheat and, as a result, the destruction of reactor plants at the largest in Europe a nuclear power plant with the release of radioactive substances into the atmosphere and carry them over hundreds of kilometers.
Such an emergency will cause mass migration of the population and will have more catastrophic consequences than the impending gas energy crisis in Europe, which is confirmed by the forecast of a number of European relevant organizations.
In addition, according to available information, as part of a trip to Ukraine from August 17 to 19, 2022, UN Secretary-General Guterres plans to visit the city of Odessa. By this date, the Armed Forces of Ukraine intend to stage a provocation of a man-made disaster at the Zaporozhye NPP, which consists in a radiation leak, the destruction of the integrity of the nuclear waste storage facility and the decommissioning of the nuclear power plant reactor into a state of emergency.
All this, according to their plan, should be the result of the military operations of the Russian Armed Forces on the territory of the nuclear power plant, the incompetence of Russian specialists involved in the operation of this nuclear facility.
For the purpose of staging, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are planning to fully deploy radiation monitoring posts in the formations, military units and subunits deployed in the Zaporozhye Region to fully deploy radiation monitoring posts, provide 100 percent of military personnel with NBC protection equipment, conduct training in chemical and radiation protection and other safety measures. In particular, units of the 44th separate Artillery Brigade were ordered to be ready for action by August 19, 2022 in conditions of radiation contamination of the area.
Same way, to the area of the Zaporozhye NPP, units are being transferred 704 Separate Regiment of the RCB for the protection of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Artillery strikes on the Zaporozhye NPP are planned from the city blocks of the city of Nikopol.
Such “performance” will be accompanied by public alerts about the increase in background radiation and other “special effects”. The staging is being carried out in the interests of influencing the UN Secretary General and the international community to cover up decisions that are beneficial to Kyiv.
The ultimate goal of the provocation is the creation of an exclusion zone (up to 30 km), the introduction of international forces and foreign observers to the territory of the Zaporozhye NPP, as well as the accusation of the Russian Armed Forces of attacking the plant protected by Russian troops.
As a conclusion from the above, we would like to draw your attention to the fact that if the negative development of the situation related to the shelling of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant by Ukrainian Armed Forces continues, the issue of transferring into the “cold reserve” of nuclear reactors # 5 and # 6 will be considered. It will subsequently lead to the shutdown of the overall Zaporozhye NPP.