U.S. veteran intelligence advisors urge President Biden to change course now

January 26, 2023

SUBJECT: Leopards vs. the Russian Bear

Decisions in an Intelligence Vacuum

Dear President Biden:

We are aware that the just-reported decision to send Abrams tanks to Ukraine responds to Berlin’s coy insistence that “you go first.” Now Leopard tanks from Germany and other allies will also be sent. Trouble is that those few that make it into Ukraine will be late to the party.

What your advisers should have told you is that none of the newly promised weaponry will stop Russia from defeating what’s left of the Ukrainian army. If you have been told otherwise, replace your intelligence and military advisers with competent professionals – the sooner the better.

Poorly Served

It has long been clear that you have not been adequately briefed on two issues of major importance: (1) the war in Ukraine, and (2) the strategic partnership between Russia and China. We chose this genre of “ALERT MEMORANDUM” because we want to prepare you for a major shock. Russia’s winter offensive is about to roll over the Ukrainian army. At that point, unwelcome choices will have to be made. Off-ramps must be sought – again, the sooner the better.

Your intelligence advisers seem blissfully unaware of what is coming. Still less do they appear able to offer you options to head off further disaster for Ukraine without still more dangerous escalation. As for China, the partnership with Russia is now so close that there is now a risk of a two-front war with two strong nuclear powers strongly supporting each other against the U.S.

Escalation Dominance

President Obama conceded, in a 2016 interview with The Atlantic, that Russia has escalation dominance in Ukraine, adding that Ukraine is a core interest of Russia but not of the US Thus, he warned, “we have to be very clear about what our core interests are and what we are willing to go to war for.” Moreover, Obama’s warning came several years before the Russia-China entente took the solid shape it enjoys today.

Several of us undersigned were intelligence officers during Vietnam 55 years ago, when the Vietnamese Communists mounted a fierce country-wide offensive at Tet (late Jan. – early Feb. 1968). Earlier, smiley-face intelligence reporting from the military in Saigon left policymakers totally unprepared for the debacle. Recrimination was so widespread and bitter that President Johnson announced the following month that he would not run again for president.

VIPs’ Record on ‘Fixed’ (Corrupted) Intelligence

Twenty years ago, before the US/UK attack on Iraq, we warned President George W. Bush repeatedly that ‘justification’ for such an attack was based on false intelligence. (See, for example, “Today’s Speech By Secretary Powell At The UN” and “Iraq Intel: Forgery, Hyperbole, Half-Truth.”) Five years later, the Chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, Jay Rockefeller, releasing the bipartisan conclusions of a 5-year committee investigation, summed them up with these words:

“In making the case for war, the [Bush] Administration repeatedly presented intelligence as fact when in reality it was unsubstantiated, contradicted, or even non-existent.”

‘Nonexistent’! Ponder that. Manufactured, fraudulent. In our Feb. 5, 2003 Memo on Secretary of State Colin Powell’s speech, we warned that the unintended consequences of an attack on Iraq were likely to be catastrophic. We also urged President Bush to widen the circle of his advisers “beyond those clearly bent on a war for which we see no compelling reason.”

President Biden, please consider widening your circle now. Bring in new blood, with proven experience and the ability to weigh things dispassionately and understand the perspectives of other countries.

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U.S. admits to NATO: We make military decisions based on posts on social networks

From Fort Russ

US rep to NATO gathers most intel from social networks
May 6, 2015
Translated by Kristina Rus

Expected, but sensational and terrifying for the whole world admission was made by the US Ambassador to NATO, speaking about the sources of information about the events in Ukraine and Donbass. It turned out that the USA, calling itself a superpower with a mission “to decide the fate of the world economy and geopolitics” in their decision making rely not on intelligence, but… on publications in social networks.

At the forum “Friends of Europe” in Brussels the official representative of the US came clean:

“I can honestly say that I read more in social networks about what is happening in Donbass than in the official intelligence reports. Because an intelligence network does not exist today”. 

However, he immediately began to make excuses that “early warning systems,” similar to those that existed in the cold war period, do not currently exist, and not only in USA, but also all NATO countries.” And, of course, began backpedaling, saying that “the United States is not ignoring the intelligence, but the entire intelligence system of the United States and NATO have changed in a fundamental way”.

That is the United States, declaring their right to a military solution to conflicts in other countries, the willingness to defend NATO allies (read – to start a war) without a decision of Security Council, sending instructors and equipment to Ukraine, surrounding Russia with military compounds and NATO bases do it on the basis… of accounts in social networks. Which are written by the “information troops” of Ukraine, constantly distorting the situation, leaking fakes, quoting nonsense (alas!) of the Ukrainian media – working for public money, which Ukraine currently receives… right, from the West. But America has officially stated that it is “creating cyber troops who will be engaged in propaganda of the American view on Ukrainian events on the Russian internet”! And this is besides Snowden’s revelations about the existence of the special center of the U.S. and Britain engaged in spreading disinformation, provocation of protests and information wars – including in Russian.

Of course, you can laugh, “now it is clear why the US and NATO are not able to provide documentary evidence of Russian troops in Ukraine” and sneer over the representatives of the State Department – Harf and Psaki. But it came full circle. And this circle, as you know, is very dangerous.

“No one wants a World War III because America, relying on social networks, will bring in troops somewhere, will announce sanctions of the highest order or will begin a fight with the Russians. Especially when along with the NSA and civil society activists, subsidized by American grants, it is manipulating these social networks”, – commented the Americans. 

And indeed, we should recall the statement of the Under Secretary of the U.S. Department, reporting that the White House “won’t rule out military options in response to the policies of Russian Federation”.

It is reminiscent of the fake [Gen. Colin] Powell evidence – after which began the intervention in Iraq, fake photos of mass deaths of the Libyan people and other evidence, beneficial to the US, which later turned out to be false.

No wonder that when in early 2014 the American association for the study of public opinion, WIN/Gallup, surveyed 66 800 residents from five continents, asking

Which country, in their opinion, is the greatest threat to the world?“,

the majority stated that the biggest threat to the planet comes from the United States.


Surveillance Valley: Why Google is eager to align itself with America’s military-industrial complex

It is surprising how many people still use gmail, including those involved in community advocacy and social and environmental issues. All data can be taken, and all email recipients recorded with data archives created. This puts everyone at such risk.

Other writers have reported how the U.S. government sends “relevant” information to private companies and industries, like the fracking industry, to thwart protests, etc. There are many other email services, including encrypted ones like Start Mail, that are far better choices.

By Yasha Levine / AlterNet
March 1, 2015

Is it wise for us to hand over the contents of our private lives to private companies?

The following is an excerpt from Yasha Levine’s ongoing investigative project, Surveillance Valley, which you can help support on KickStarter.

Oakland, California: On February 18, 2014, several hundred privacy, labor, civil rights activists packed Oakland’s city hall.

It was a rowdy crowd, and there was a heavy police presence. The people were there to protest the construction of a citywide surveillance center that would turn a firehouse in downtown Oakland into a high-tech intelligence hub straight out of Mission Impossible — a federally funded project that linking up real time audio and video feeds from thousands of sensors across the city into one high-tech control hub, where analysts could pipe the data through face recognition software and enrich its intelligence with data coming in from local, state and federal government and law enforcement agencies.

Residents’ anger at the fusion surveillance center was intensified by a set of internal documents showing that city officials were more interested in using the surveillance center monitor political protests rather than fighting crime: keeping tabs on activists, monitoring non-violent political protests and tracking union organizing that might shut down the Port of Oakland. It was an incendiary find — especially in Oakland, a city with a large marginalized black population, a strong union presence and a long, ugly history of police brutality aimed at minority groups and political activists.

But buried deep in the thousands of pages of planning documents was another disturbing detail. Emails that showed Google — the largest and most powerful corporation in Silicon Valley — was among several other defense contractors vying for a piece of Oakland’s $11 million surveillance contract. What was Google doing there? What could a company known for superior search and cute doodles offer a controversial surveillance center?

Turns out, a lot.

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Are the six NATO warships in the Black Sea studying Crimea’s defenses in preparation for an invasion?

Posted on Fort Russ

March 5, 2015
Translated by Kristina Rus

Officer of the Black Sea Navy: NATO Exercises in the Black sea – is study of Crimea’s defenses 

Six NATO warships are conducting war games in the Black Sea.

“The Black Sea navy staff is closely monitoring all the activities of the North Atlantic Alliance in the region,” – said the officer of the Russian Black Sea fleet in Sevastopol.

All six ships – the American missile cruiser “Vicksburg” the type of “Ticonderog”, canadian frigate “Fredericton”, the Turkish frigate “Turgutreis, an Italian frigate “Alesia”, the Romanian frigate “Regina Maria” and the German supply ship  “Spessart” – are part of “the second marine group of NATO”.

According to the source, the exercises involve practicing protection against air attacks and torpedo attacks from submarines. The commander of the group, Admiral Williamson, has already stated that the exercises in the Black sea are conducted “at the invitation of Turkish, Bulgarian and Romanian governments” and support “preparedness for any NATO mission, which may be needed to perform its obligations under the collective defense”. At the same time, NATO planned exercises “according to the scenario of the crisis between the two non-Alliance countries.”

“We closely monitor the movements and actions of NATO ships, because regardless of the legend about the exercises, the activities of the ships of the Alliance are aimed at studying the defenses of Crimea“, – said the officer.

According to the source, the recently relocated to Crimea, latest Su-30 and front-line bombers Su-24, which are in constant contact with the ships of the Black Sea Fleet, in particular with 519-m separate division reconnaissance ships, are involved in monitoring the NATO group.

Earlier, an official spokesman of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Alexander Lukashevich called the entrance of NATO ships into the Black sea “a provocative idea, which will not contribute to the settlement of the conflict in Eastern of Ukraine.”