From Fort Russ
Kolomoysky is creating his own GenStaff (Clarification of situation)
Translated from Russian by J.Hawk
The next moment of honesty from Yarosh:
“The new HQ will be joined by about 17 various volunteer battalions, subordinated to the MVD and the MOD, and of course the Right Sector Volunteer Corps.
We have already created a unique operational staff. It will be located in Dnepropetrovsk. It will perform intelligence data exchange, mutual assistance, military-technical cooperation, and so on. We may also form certain operational formations at the front, after all we often have the best operational information about what is happening on this or that sector of the front simply because our battalions are there. We can make recommendations to the General Staff in order to carry out operational and tactical missions,” added Yarosh.
As we can see, the creation of a new command entity for part of the UAF and MVD is proceeding at full pace, and it will be based in Dnepropetrovsk. The formation will in practical terms means the formation of a Dnepropetrovsk khanate, and an increase in Kolomoysky’s influence in intra-Ukrainian power struggles, which will violate the current balance of power.
Even if there is an agreement reached in Minsk today, which I don’t believe will happen (if anything is signed, it will not be done seriously or for long, unfortunately), the break-down of the UAF and MVD into two components will be de-facto concluded. Then UAF formations will have to choose a side, either with Poroshenko or not with Poroshenko.
It won’t happen today or tomorrow, but very soon everyone who is fighting against LPR/DPR will have to make that choice, and then the Ukrainian civil war will spread with new force to new territories. Because according to the Washington central, it’s not enough to plunge the Donbass into chaos; all of Ukraine must be affected. And unfortunately the people of Ukraine are following that path.
P.S. US plans do not foresee the war in Ukraine ever ending. If it ends, it will be a defeat for Washington. They will never agree to that. I am certain of it.
J.Hawk’s Comment: It’s not a given that Yarosh is Kolomoysky’s creature. After all, it is Yarosh who controls the Right Sector, and Kolomoysky has no means of replacing him with anyone else. The location of the parallel Right Sector HQ in Dnepropetrovsk does not necessarily imply Kolomoysky’s control over the enterprise. Instead, it may mean Yarosh is being planted there to keep an eye on Kolomoysky whose political reliability is probably suspect. Though it is possible that Yarosh is happy to collect Kolomoysky’s money in exchange for “protection” from Poroshenko, and that the relationship between the two is strictly business, with the extent of Yarosh’s loyalty to Kolomoysky being limited by the latter’s cash reserves. To be sure, Yarosh very recently stated that he made a mistake by supporting Poroshenko during and after the Maidan.
Aside from that, one cannot help but agree with Yurasumy’s analysis. It would appear that the volunteer battalions opted on their own to join the Right Sector’s command structure, even though they are presumably still attached to regular army brigades. No word on any regular army or National Guard formations opting to come under Yarosh’s command—they are presumably remaining loyal to Poroshenko. But since the volunteer battalions are “legal” and therefore have access to all manner of military equipment, the “military-technical cooperation” simply amounts to a back-door way of accomplishing what Yarosh could not do openly, namely ensuring access to large quantities of military equipment. Because now the volunteer battalions will be able to pass their weapons to the Right Sector, then request replacement (by claiming destruction during combat or some such thing) from the MOD. It’s a big win for Yarosh and the Right Sector. It may well be that, by being based in Dnepropetrovsk, they intend to carve out a role for themselves as a “military frontier” of sorts, by keeping the unrest down in the border areas and also providing security at the border itself.
As to the US policy in Ukraine, I would have to disagree with Yurasumy here. The US seems to be clearly deferring to the EU since at least the Munich Conference. Senior EU officials were adamant that even should this round of Minsk talks fail, it will not change their mind concerning arming of Ukraine. The US seems to be respecting those wishes, restraining to providing support equipment (apparently communications equipment, artillery radars, and associated training) rather than actual weaponry.