From Fort Russ
Posted on Fort Russ, January 23, 2015
Editorial – Politonline.ru
Translated from Russian by Kristina Rus
Kiev is ready to impose martial law in the South-East of Ukraine and to declare war on Russia. This was announced in Verkhovnaya Rada, confessed the head of the Committee on National Security and Defense. Deputies noted that the decision has been made, only postponed for financial reasons, because the IMF will not give money to a country at war.
Recall that the national guard received orders to take Donetsk and the airport close to it, but… it turned out that the security forces were not ready to attack. The President of Russia Vladimir Putin offered Petro Poroshenko a new proposal for the withdrawal of heavy artillery. Kiev refused it, without offering anything in return. Later, the Ukrainian authorities offered Moscow to sign the schedule of implementation of the Minsk agreements.
At the same time, the fourth wave of mobilization started in Ukraine. The decree was signed by Poroshenko even a few days before the deadline – the reason for this was a tragedy near Volnovaha, which killed 12 passengers of the bus. Male population of Ukraine again is preparing for mass exodus, during which entire villages of males disappear. Experts have already wrote that in any scenario of a military solution to the conflict, Ukraine will lose.
Earlier, the speaker of the Verkhovna Rada Aleksandr Turchynov talked about the plans of the authorities of his country – he said that the war with Russia is inevitable and Ukraine will supposedly return Crimea, “as soon as it will accumulate enough strength”. In addition, the former Defense Minister of Ukraine Valeriy Geletey promised from the podium of the Verkhovna Rada that he will attack Russia and conduct a so-called “victory parade” in Sevastopol, Crimea, which he will make “Ukrainian”.
“I think it’s a propaganda statement. Martial law cannot be applied to a part of a country, it can be introduced across the entire country – and this automatically means the dissolution of the Verkhovnaya Rada, the transition of power to the military and cancelling civil authority. This means the absence of constitutional and social freedoms, curfew throughout the country, three-shift working day,” told Politonline.ru Director of the Institute of National Strategy of Russia, Yuri Solozobov.
“It also means huge financial losses – no one will give loans to a warring country.” Well-known political analyst added that “if they declare war on Russia unilaterally (and Moscow does not consider itself a party to the conflict, and rightfully so) – this means the aggression on the part of Ukraine, an attack on the territory of the Russian Federation”,- he added. “In this case, our country will have a free pass, it will be able to apply all – emphasize – any means to respond to an aggression.”
Will NATO help Ukraine? Yuri Solozobov reminded that according to some sources, “the commander of the ground forces of NATO is already in the zone of conflict“, in addition, there are a lot of military instructors, mercenaries, representatives of private military companies, foreign weapons were discovered, there is already a U.S. Congress resolution on delivery of lethal weapons”. The expert believes that it “dramatically complicates the situation”.
“They want to impose a martial law, but in order to do that, a war is necessary. Which there is not. And if there is a war inside the country, you cannot declare martial law, maximum – a state of emergency,” told in an interview to Politonline.ru the leading expert of the Center for Political-Military studies at MGIMO, Mikhail Alexandrov. He noted that to introduce martial law, Ukraine has to declare war on Russia.
“Then, will Russia watch indifferently as a war is declared against it? No. If they declare war on Russia in order to solve their crisis – Russia has every right to move troops to the territory of Ukraine. In this scenario, Ukraine has no chance – the resistance of Ukrainian forces will last a week at most”,- said the military expert.
What’s next? “Then all of Ukraine is occupied by Russian troops on a completely legal basis – if officially a war was declared on Russia, then no West, OSCE or the UN can say anything. In this case, Russia will use the UN Charter on the right for individual and collective defense and will be able to calmly destroy the armed forces of Ukraine as the aggressor,” – says the military analyst.
Even according to the results of war-2008 the “shadow Pentagon,” Stratfor, has published a guide for analysts, in which it was noted: “the Russian army is capable of successful operations, can defeat U.S. military forces.” In 2014 appeared the statements of NATO about Russia as “clever and cunning enemy.” And statements that NATO “is not ready to defeat Russia”.
Note that military analysts repeatedly and meticulously analyzed the options of war between Russia and Ukraine (as well as a war between Russia and USA). For example, there is a “battle outlook” of RAND and three scenarios from a local battle to a nuclear attack on Ukraine. Ukraine in these scenarios, of course, loses outright.
It is also significant that even Ukrainians quote an American marine in social networks: “I would not want the Russians to seriously begin fighting with us. Let me be unpatriotic, but I feel that they will definitely kick our butt”.