The Japanese pivot

Posted on Fort Russ

 

May 23, 2015
The Japanese Pivot
By Fritzmorgen
Translated from Russian by J.Hawk

Will Japan agree to drop its claims on the South Kurile islands for the sake of signing a peace treaty with Russia? Even a couple of years ago I would have said with certainty that it’s not possible, and that the Japanese will continue to cover our islands to the last.

Let’s recall some history. Japan attacked Russia in 1904 in a not very nice way and after the 1905 peace received from us the southern half of the Sakhalin Island and a few other islands.  The Japanese did not celebrate for very long: upon the end of WW2 Russia took back its territory. Japan took the loss of what they stole rather calmly. During the Khrushchev era they even tried to reach a peace agreement in order to affirm their losses and turn a new leaf in its relations with Russia, the US however vetoed the proposed treaty.

http://ruxpert.ru/Территориальные_споры_России

I’ll add that we did not exactly twist Japan’s arms. The two southern islands, Kunashir and Iturup, are vital to us since they sit astride a never freezing waterway to Vladivostok. The small Kurile range, which are not as valuable to us, Khrushchev was willing to give up in order to end the conflict.

However, the status quo also satisfied both sides. We had our ice free passage to Vladivostok and de-facto controlled the islands, while the Japanese were not concerned by the absence of a peace treaty because they understood Russia was not about to attack them. The half-hearted negotiations of the “give us the islands–no we won’t” could have continued for decades…if it weren’t for the fact that the star-spangled collossus is now sporting cracks visible to the naked eye.

The bomb surfaced in the middle of the week. Japan suddenly said that it is inviting Vladimir Vladimirovich for a visit, and not just for the sake of small talk but…to conclude a peace treaty and resolve the territorial issue:

http://www.interfax.ru/world/442616

Russia’s position has not changed–we are not prepared to give the islands to the Japanese in exchange for a peace treaty: the signing of that document is not so important to us that we would make territorial concessions. Therefore we can carefully conclude that Japan’s position has changed. It may be that Japan decided to sign the peace treaty on Russia’s terms and finally part with the islands which were under its control for a few decades of the 20th century.

The gravity of what’s happening can be judged by the US reaction. Shortly after the unexpected Japanese announcement a relevant Assistant Secretary of State gathered journalist and told them that Japan should not deal with Russia, because Russia is guilty and should be punished:

http://www.vedomosti.ru/politics/news/2015/05/22/gosdep-ssha-yaponii-ne-stoit-vesti-dela-s-rossiei-kak-obichno

What is more, George Soros woke up and in so many words said that China is scheming to attack Japan, which is only being kept safe from the hordes of Chinese occupiers by the brave US Marines:

http://aftershock.su/?q=node/309880

How are we to interpret all this? What is happening, and why are the Japanese acting as if they intend to make, for no apparent reason, an unacceptably generous gesture toward Russia?

Let’s recall history again, this time of WW2. Japan bravely fought against the US on the Pacific front but in final account suffered a tremendous defeat which was underscored by the US atomic strikes on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. I’ll note that the Japanese were not exactly playing nice either during the war. The Japanese military acted with such brutality that they eclipsed eve the most odious fascist criminals. Interested individuals should search the net for, for example, “Unit 731” or read the novel “Playing Go.” Samurai fearlessness was a double-edged sword: they were not only indifferent to their own suffering, but to the pain of others as well.

Therefore ultimately Japan fell to the US and…made a very bold move. They acknowledged themselves to be completely defeated and became the most faithful servants of the US. They fulfilled all of the US conditions, forgave them for nuclear bombardments, gave up on having a military and found a secure spot for themselves in the US world order on the terms of favorite colony, acting for a while as if it’s not the US and USSR who fought against Japan, but rather US and Japan who fought against USSR.

We know that the tactic worked. The tiny Japan made an economic leap forward and became the world’s second economy, allowing itself to fall to the fourth place due to the rise of Japan and India only recently. Granted, in the last couple of decades Japan’s economy has been barely ticking under the crushing US colonial ceiling, but the defeated Japan managed to extract far more benefits from its defeat than anyone could have predicted in the distant 1945.

We should also understand that the US were able to subordinate Japan with their nukes but not domesticate it. The Japanese are not savages from US comic books who are happy to kiss the hand of their white master. The Japanese elites remember well all of that “democracy” which the US inflicted on them before, during, and after WW2.

Now the US main enemy are China and Russia, but mainly China. Japan is conveniently located to serve as a sledgehammer against China: in other words, to start a war with China that give the US to use its nuclear club on China or at the very least seriously weaken it by a major war. At the same time, the US is not in the least concerned about what happens to the hammer, just as they are not concerned about what happens to their other combat implement, Ukraine.

Therefore, from the point of view of cold-blooded Japanese, now is the time to try to escape from the ill tyrant. Let me say again that there is no possibility of a genuine friendship between the US and Japan: the Japanese understand perfectly well they were defeated and they view the Americans as occupiers.

Cooperation with China is, from Japan’s perspective, more preferable to continuing as America’s colony. Japan has technologies and a highly developed industry. If the Japanese convincingly apologize before the Chinese for the Rape of Nanking and other crimes of that era, if they resolve their territorial disputes with China, the PRC will be happy to establish a strong partnership with Japa.

But what can protect Japan from jilted America’s anger? Obviously, only Russia. Which can extend its nuclear umbrella over Japan, should it feel the need. Therefore now is the time to make a bold move: acknowledge the islands to be part of Russia and join Russia as a junior partner.

The potential cooperation between Japan and Russia looks even more promising than possible cooperation between Japan and China. Apart from the nuclear umbrella, we can help Japan with hydrocarbons it so badly needs by building a Power of Siberia extension to Japan. Access to Russian gas would allow Japan to greatly reduce its production costs.

There’s still the question of the impossibly large national debt which is currently pulling Japan’s economy to the bottom. However, that problem can be solved Japanese-style. It would be enough for the government to address the nation: “Yamato is in danger, we need to unite in the face of adversity.” Then default, hyperinflation, debt nullification and…inevitable economic take-off.

Who’s afraid of default?

Default terrifies those who have a trade deficit. Those who buy more than sell. In the event of default, they have nothing with which to cover the difference between imports and exports, which means they have to sharply reduce imports which then leads to catastrophic economic consequences.

But countries with a trade surplus–and Japan has one even right now, in spite of temporary energy problems–don’t need credits nearly as much. Japan enjoys a continual influx of money from its foreign economic activity.

Right now Japan is half-bankrupt because the US is sucking out all of its financial juices, forcing them to buy their junk-status government bonds. If Japan manages to free itself from this honorable duty, it will quickly grow rich. What’s more, within a year of yen devaluation the country will undergo a devaluation euphoria: the cost of manufacturing will drop sharply and Japanese goods will become even more competitive.

If you add to this cheap Russian gas, we’ll see that after trading the status of US colony for that of Russian and Chinese junior partner, Japan will be able to repeat the economic miracle of the ’60s.

This scenario is beneficial to both Japan and Russia. And not only because of the peace treaty. There are more important reasons for us to help Japan free itself.

Already today Japan is trying to buy oil for yen–obtaining full independence would allow it to reject dollars altogether. The loss of a major colony and the subsequent narrowing of the dollar space would place the US in such a difficult situation that our US friends and partners would have far less eagerness to do stupid things close to Russia’s borders.

On the other hand, our army and our hydrocarbons will become so important to the defenseless Japan that we can count not only on a long-term relationship but also on Japanese help to expand domestic machine tool production.

What is more, we are nudging Japan in that direction. Sergey Naryshkin said a couple of days ago said that nuclear attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and I quote, “to this day did not receive appropriate evaluation on the international level.”

http://russian.rt.com/inotv/2015-05-21/Mainichi-V-YAponii-Narishkin-udaril

This way we are giving Japan yet another reason to opt for independence from the US–arrogant Americans still think they are the only superpower on the planet and don’t intend to apologize for anything.

It’s self evident that it would be too soon to write off Uncle Sam. Uncle Sam may be ill, but is still quite strong and clever. But there is one more reason which allows Japan to hope for a successful escape. The US is entering into its election cycle–the US elites are becoming absorbed by the upcoming elections and are paying less attention to external irritants.

US presidential elections will take place in November 2016–therefore Japan now has a window of opportunity of about a year. If Japan quickly establishes relations with Russia and China–or at least one of them–Washington, in all likelihood, will not be able to react adequately to the departure of the fattest pearl of its imperial crown.

http://www.fortruss.blogspot.com/2015/05/the-japanese-pivot.html

A comment:

The Pentagon and the intelligence community do not live by election cycles. There is no “off” season for them.

So, no country should be so naïve as to think it can “sneak” something by the ruling establishment in Washington. It can’t happen.

And it is a mistake to think that the Pentagon and the intelligence community are controlled by elected officials. The reality is that the military and intelligence community, plus the business community and Wall St., control American elected officials.

 

 

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The US is juggling chaos and coordination in order to contain China

An exceptional, in-depth article on the threats to China, and the U.S. involvement.

From Oriental Review.org
By Andrew Korybko
March 16, 2015

It’s no secret by now that the US is dead set on containing China, yet it’s shying away from engaging in a direct confrontation with it. Instead, the US is managing a dual policy of creating chaos along China’s western and southwest reaches, while coordinating a containment alliance along its southeastern and northeastern periphery. Central Asia, northeast India, and Myanmar represent the chaos components, while the ‘unsinkable aircraft carriers’ of Japan and the Philippines are the coordinated ones. In this manner, the US is literally surrounding the country with hostile situations and states (with the obvious exception being the Russian frontier), hoping that this can disorient China’s decision makers and consequently pave the way for the external destabilization to infiltrate inwards. Amidst all this plotting, China isn’t sitting on its hands and behaving passively, since it has three specific strategies in mind to break the Chinese Containment Coalition (CCC) and counter the US’ Pivot to Asia.

Cultivating Chaos

The western and southwestern strategy of the CCC is to create a destabilized ‘rimland’ capable of infecting China’s vulnerable peripheral provinces with contagious chaos. This section examines how American grand strategy in Central and West Southeast Asia is designed to do just that, while a previous publication by the author already explored the prospects of a chain reaction of Color Revolutions emanating from Hong Kong.

Turkmenistan:
The Central Asian ‘hermit state’ is identified as the country most vulnerable to a transnational Taliban offensive sometime in the future. Should this come to pass and the country is not properly prepared to defend itself, then the disastrous consequences would immediately spread to Russia, Iran, and China, as was explained in a previous article by the author. Pertaining to the latter, this involves the massive destabilization of China’s regional gas imports from its largest current supplier, which would of course have negative reverberations in Xinjiang, the ultimate target of the US’ Central Asian chaos policies as they apply to the People’s Republic. The more endangered and insecure China’s continental energy imports are, the more reliant the country becomes on receiving them via maritime channels, which given the US’ naval superiority, places them directly under Washington’s control in the event of a crisis.

Kyrgyzstan:
The chaotic threat originating in Kyrgyzstan is more tangible than the one in Turkmenistan, as the Map_of_Central_Asiamountainous republic directly abuts Xinjiang. When looking at the US’ destructive Central Asian strategy, it becomes evident that it has an interest in ushering in the collapse of the Kyrgyz government via a new Color Revolution in order to, among other things, create an Uighur terrorist haven that can enflame the externally directed ethno-religious insurgency against Beijing. From the perspective of American foreign policy, then, a crisis in Kyrgyzstan is a geopolitical lever that can be ‘pulled’ to activate more instability in Xinjiang, with the aim of potentially luring the People’s Liberation Army into a quagmire. In the general scheme of things, both Central Asian republics, Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan, are essentially anti-Chinese weapons waiting to be (de)constructed by the US for use against the strategic province of Xinjiang, with Uzbekistan also playing a similar role if it implodes (or is prodded to do so by the US).

Northeast India:
In this corner of India, which could culturally be considered the northwestern fringe of Southeast Asia, the myriad ethnic tensions and bubbling insurgencies there could make the leap from being a domestic to an international crisis. The author previously assessed that one of the repercussions of last year’s Bodo-inspired violence was to destabilize the proposed Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) trade corridor, which would negatively affect Beijing’s plans for a ‘Bay of Bengal Silk Road’. Internationalizing the situation, however, could see ethnic warfare emboldening militant non-state actors in Myanmar, with the end goal that they finally destabilize Yunnan Province, the most culturally diverse area in China that has even been liked to “a perfect microcosm” of it. Although there is no evidence that has yet been procured to suggest that the US played any role in instigating the latest violence in Assam, it doesn’t mean that it can’t do so in the future, especially now that the die of ethnic tension has already been cast. This Damocles’ Sword is continually hanging over the head of India’s decision makers, since they understand that it can be applied against them in the event that they resist Washington’s pressure to commit more closely to the Chinese Containment Coalition (CCC).

Myanmar:
The greatest conventional threat to China along its southern edge (notwithstanding a hostile India) lies in the overspill of ethnic warfare from Myanmar into Yunnan. This is actually already happening, since the recent violence in Kokang (Shan State) has forced thousands from their homes and into China as refugees, where they are reportedly being seen as ‘burdensome’ to the authorities. Quite obviously, China comprehends the vulnerabilities of Yunnan to Xinjiang-like external destabilization, albeit manifested in a different manner, hence its sensitivity to what may be the reignition of Myanmar’s civil war. After all, the unexpected outbreak of violence has yet again delayed the country’s long-awaited peace talks from being concluded, which were reportedly set to be finalized prior to this.

Now, however, other ethnic groups have become emboldened by the clashes, and are sending their own fighters and mercenaries to Kokang, which has also been put under martial law. It now looks like the fragile nationwide peace process is on the verge of being completely shattered, and the fighting may spread to other ethnic regions if their respective militias decide to take advantage of any perceived government setbacks in Kokang to launch their own offensives. All of this would lead to the deterioration of Yunnan’s security and the influx of thousands of more refugees, some of whom may even be militant-affiliated and intent on starting their own uprisings inside China. It is this factor that scares Beijing the most, namely, that Yunnan’s jungles could one day become home to Xinjiang-like fighters intent on throwing another corner of the country into chaos.

Chaotic Patterns:
Making sense out of this grand chaos is the fact that it does follow some semblance of order in terms of US strategy. The countries in focus are along China’s western and southwestern edge, which is already j09-xinj-340ripe for ethnic provocations. Additionally, two of the states abutting the targeted provinces, Kyrgyzstan for Xinjiang and Myanmar for Yunnan, are inherently unstable for their own reasons, thus making them ‘ticking time bombs’ that could be prodded by the US to explode on China’s doorstep. As regards Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and northeast India, their destabilizations are tripwires for the two main ‘bombs’, Kyrgyzstan and Myanmar, although the disruption of any of the three aforementioned areas does undermine China in its own right. In short, this vector of American grand strategy is aimed at the destruction of key peripheral states surrounding China in order to chip away at the strength of the central government along its own peripheral areas, two of which (Xinjiang and Yunnan) are susceptible to outside-directed destabilization aimed at ethnic agitation.

Coordinating Containment

On the other side of China, the US is crafting a Chinese Containment Coalition (CCC) to confront Beijing and provoke it into a Reverse Brzezinski intervention in the South China Sea (if it isn’t dragged into one in Myanmar first). Japan and the Philippines are the centerpieces of this strategy, and South Korea and Vietnam are envisioned as playing crucial roles as well. Let’s take a look at Washington’s plans for each highlighted country, as well as how they all fit together into the bigger picture:

Continue reading

Hiroshima, Nagasaki: US should be indicted on criminal charges for World War II nuclear attacks on Japan, says Speaker of Russian Duma

From RT

The Russian Lower House speaker wants to instigate an international investigation into the 1945 nuclear bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki by the US military – a possible crime against humanity with no statute of limitation.

“Next year [in 2015] we will have the 70th anniversary of the Nuremberg Trial and also the same anniversary of the first and only nuclear bombings of two civilian cities – Hiroshima and Nagasaki. It is not incidental that I mention these events together. I think we should discuss this topic together with lawyers and specialists in international law – for crimes against humanity have no statute of limitation,” Sergey Naryshkin told the presidium of the Russian History Society.

The Russian parliamentary chief recalled that the nuclear attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki were hardly justifiable from the pure military position, as the defeat of Japan was practically decided after the Soviet Army’s victories in Manchuria.

“The nuclear bombing of two peaceful cities was a pure act of intimidation resulting in the deaths of several thousand Japanese civilians. Let us get back to this issue within the next year,” Naryshkin said.

The nuclear bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki took place in early August, 1945, and resulted in the deaths of between 150,000 and 250,000 people, most of them civilians. The US authorities said the demonstration of force sped up Japan’s capitulation and prevented a land operation on the island that could have inflicted heavy casualties to the US military. At the same time, the two attacks, especially the Hiroshima bombing, have been repeatedly denounced by the international rights community as fundamentally immoral and violating the spirit of conventions that banned the use of weapons of mass destruction against the enemy’s civilian population.

Japanese officials and international rights activists raise the issue of the bombings to this day, noting that the radioactive fallout damaged Hiroshima and Nagasaki’s children, causing various illnesses in some, and costly medical checks and constant fears for the health of the rest.

http://rt.com/politics/217787-naryshkin-russia-hiroshima-trial/

http://www.globalresearch.ca/hiroshima-nagasaki-speaker-of-russias-state-duma-us-should-be-indicted-on-criminal-charges-for-world-war-ii-nuclear-attacks-on-japan/5422163