From Fort Russ
February 12, 2015
Lifenews
From Fort Russ
February 12, 2015
Lifenews
From Stop NATO
U.S. Department of Defense
February 9, 2015
Unity Will Prevent New Age of Disorder, NATO Chief Says
By Jim Garamone
[Perhaps Stoltenberg meant to employ the verbs create, spread or maintain for “prevent.”]
WASHINGTON: Solidarity is needed to prevent a new age of disorder, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said yesterday in Munich.
“History is not written in advance,” the secretary general said at the annual Munich Security Conference. “We can prevent an age of disorder if we have the will. We can keep the international order that has served us so well if we stand up for its rules and if we stand up for each other.”
Last year marked a turning point for European security and the global order, he said. In Europe, Russia annexed Crimea and is seeking to destabilize Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin is seeking to intimidate the Baltic republics, Poland, Romania and Georgia.
“North Africa and the Middle East are also in turmoil,” Stoltenberg said. “States are breaking up, and conflict is at our borders. Extremism is fueling barbaric violence across the region and inspiring terrorism on our own streets.”
Maintaining Order
But the international order can be maintained if like-minded nations stick together, he said.
One of the tools, he said, is NATO — the most successful international security pact in history. “Since its foundation, NATO has been a resolute guardian of the international order,” Stoltenberg said. “That order is being challenged, and we must do our utmost to protect it.”
NATO must change to address the threats of the 21st century, and it must maintain and increase its strength, the secretary general said…
NATO and allied forces must be ready to deploy at a moment’s notice and must be able to deter any threat from any direction, Stoltenberg said, including countering the so-called “hybrid warfare” that Russia has used in Ukraine.
‘We Cannot Do More With Less Forever’
This is going to require resources, the secretary general said, noting that since the end of the Cold War, European defense spending has fallen steadily. “We cannot do more with less forever,” he added.
At NATO’s summit in Wales, alliance leaders agreed to increase defense spending as their nations’ economies grow. “It cannot be done overnight,” Stoltenberg said, “but it can be done.”
…
“We are stepping up our support for Jordan, and Iraq has asked us to help improve its defense capacity,” he added. “In this way, we can project stability without deploying large numbers of troops, because most of the time, it will be more effective to help countries look after their own security.”
NATO Chief: Military Cohesion Needed To “Prevent New Age Of Disorder”
From Stop NATO.com
Interfax-Ukraine
February 12, 2015
February 20 to be commemorated as Heavenly Hundred Heroes Day– decree
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has signed a decree “On the tribute to the feat of the participants of the revolution of dignity and the commemoration of the Heavenly Hundred Heroes”.
“The document declares February 20 as the Day of the Heavenly Hundred Heroes, as a tribute to courage, willpower and fortitude of citizens who sacrificed their lives in the course of the Revolution of Dignity (November 2013 – February 2014), defending the ideals of democracy, human rights and freedom, as well as the European future of Ukraine,” the president’s press service announced on Wednesday.
According to the decree, the Cabinet of Ministers is instructed to develop and approve an action plan to accomplish the following: establish a museum in Kyiv dedicated to revolution; involve the National Academy of Sciences, museum, archive and research institutions in the search for photos, videos and other materials that cover the Revolution of Dignity.
The Samopomich parliamentary faction addressed the President last week with a request to mark February 20 as the Heavenly Hundred Heroes Day.
At the end of February 2014, protest rallies in the center of Kyiv ended with nearly one hundred activists being shot to death. They are now called the Heavenly Hundred Heroes, or simply the Heavenly Hundred.
Valhalla Valiant Victors: Kiev Gets Intoxicated On Nazi Metaphysics
Editor’s Note: How many of those shot to death were killed by Maidan-sponsored snipers? Will that information be included in the museums? How many policemen were wounded or killed trying to keep the peace? Will they be excluded from the Hundred Heroes?
“Defending the ideals of democracy, human rights and freedom”??? How could anyone be so delusional? Yet, the United States supports this Kiev regime.
From Fort Russ
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| The Right Sector |
February 12, 2015
Translated by Kristina Rus
RIGA, 12 Feb – RIA Novosti.
Defense Minister of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic Vladimir Kononov said that 17 territorial battalions involved in the fighting in the South-East of Ukraine pulled out of control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and went under the control of the Right Sector.
“I have data that 17 territorial battalions withdrew from subordination to UAF and came under the jurisdiction of Yarosh. This is the “Right Sector”. “Right Sector” never fulfilled any agreements and in fact they constantly provoked further clashes,” – said Kononov on Thursday on Latvian TV show “Tonight” on channel LTV7.
“Right Sector” – is a Ukrainian union of radical nationalist organizations. In January and February 2014 the militants of the movement were engaged in clashes with the police and the seizure of administrative buildings, and since April – in the suppression of protests in the East of Ukraine. Moscow has repeatedly called on Kiev to disarm illegal armed groups, including the militants of the “Right Sector”.
On Thursday in Minsk ended peace talks in “Normandy format” with the participation of Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany. Following the talks, it became known that an immediate and comprehensive ceasefire in some districts of Donetsk and Lugansk regions of Ukraine should start from 00: 00 (Kiev time) on 15 February 2015.
The withdrawal of heavy weapons must begin no later than the second day after the ceasefire and be completed within 14 days specified in the Minsk document. The security zone for the heavy artillery in Donbass should be from 50 to 140 kilometers.
Coincidentally, Kolomoisky also controls 17 battalions.
Kristina Rus:
The Minsk-2 agreement was the end of Poroshenko, and the end has begun. Crimea and Donbass uprisings were a defensive response to the threat of armed ultra-nationalists, which originally formed the Right Sector, and later – the various volunteer battalions. The Russian South-East is fighting not against the Ukrainian people, but against the raging ultra-nationalists, for whom the latest agreement was a shameful capitulation, and they had just declared they are not obliged to follow it. For them Poroshenko is a traitor, Russian-Ukrainians are subhumans, who should be annihilated and/or chased from the Ukrainian lands.
The union of ultra-nationalists and liberals which made Maidan of 2014 a success as opposed to the Maidan of 2004 stands upon the ultra-nationalist ideology, which is incompatible with any attempt to reconcile the divided Ukraine. The conflict between the East and the West is woven into the fabric of today’s Ukraine, pumped with nationalist propaganda. The only chance for peace is a military victory of one of the parties. Or else, the Kiev regime needs to cleanse itself of the brown plague, of which it was born. This is what Minsk-2 attempted to achieve.
If indeed these are the battalions controlled by Kolomoisky, then he is keeping his bet on the neo-nazis, who would help him get rid of Poroshenko and increase his clout. In a way he is out of options as they are his only fighting force. Where this all will lead is looking more and murkier by day.
The question is how will Europe and USA try to save face by enabling the “pro-US” neo-nazi forces who just wiped their bottoms with the latest agreement? Will they still be able to turn the tables and blame the “separatists” for everything?
As for whether this was a success for Putin: the ultimate measure of victory in Ukraine is denazification and building of a state friendly to neighboring Russia. In order to do it, Ukraine needs to surgically remove the cancer that is eating at it from inside. That means entering the stage of open confrontation within itself.
http://fortruss.blogspot.com/2015/02/minsk-2-is-over-before-it-began-17.html
From Fort Russ
2/11/2015
Kolomoysky is creating his own GenStaff (Clarification of situation)
By Yurasumy
Translated from Russian by J.Hawk
The next moment of honesty from Yarosh:
“The new HQ will be joined by about 17 various volunteer battalions, subordinated to the MVD and the MOD, and of course the Right Sector Volunteer Corps.
We have already created a unique operational staff. It will be located in Dnepropetrovsk. It will perform intelligence data exchange, mutual assistance, military-technical cooperation, and so on. We may also form certain operational formations at the front, after all we often have the best operational information about what is happening on this or that sector of the front simply because our battalions are there. We can make recommendations to the General Staff in order to carry out operational and tactical missions,” added Yarosh.
As we can see, the creation of a new command entity for part of the UAF and MVD is proceeding at full pace, and it will be based in Dnepropetrovsk. The formation will in practical terms means the formation of a Dnepropetrovsk khanate, and an increase in Kolomoysky’s influence in intra-Ukrainian power struggles, which will violate the current balance of power.
Even if there is an agreement reached in Minsk today, which I don’t believe will happen (if anything is signed, it will not be done seriously or for long, unfortunately), the break-down of the UAF and MVD into two components will be de-facto concluded. Then UAF formations will have to choose a side, either with Poroshenko or not with Poroshenko.
It won’t happen today or tomorrow, but very soon everyone who is fighting against LPR/DPR will have to make that choice, and then the Ukrainian civil war will spread with new force to new territories. Because according to the Washington central, it’s not enough to plunge the Donbass into chaos; all of Ukraine must be affected. And unfortunately the people of Ukraine are following that path.
P.S. US plans do not foresee the war in Ukraine ever ending. If it ends, it will be a defeat for Washington. They will never agree to that. I am certain of it.
J.Hawk’s Comment: It’s not a given that Yarosh is Kolomoysky’s creature. After all, it is Yarosh who controls the Right Sector, and Kolomoysky has no means of replacing him with anyone else. The location of the parallel Right Sector HQ in Dnepropetrovsk does not necessarily imply Kolomoysky’s control over the enterprise. Instead, it may mean Yarosh is being planted there to keep an eye on Kolomoysky whose political reliability is probably suspect. Though it is possible that Yarosh is happy to collect Kolomoysky’s money in exchange for “protection” from Poroshenko, and that the relationship between the two is strictly business, with the extent of Yarosh’s loyalty to Kolomoysky being limited by the latter’s cash reserves. To be sure, Yarosh very recently stated that he made a mistake by supporting Poroshenko during and after the Maidan.
Aside from that, one cannot help but agree with Yurasumy’s analysis. It would appear that the volunteer battalions opted on their own to join the Right Sector’s command structure, even though they are presumably still attached to regular army brigades. No word on any regular army or National Guard formations opting to come under Yarosh’s command—they are presumably remaining loyal to Poroshenko. But since the volunteer battalions are “legal” and therefore have access to all manner of military equipment, the “military-technical cooperation” simply amounts to a back-door way of accomplishing what Yarosh could not do openly, namely ensuring access to large quantities of military equipment. Because now the volunteer battalions will be able to pass their weapons to the Right Sector, then request replacement (by claiming destruction during combat or some such thing) from the MOD. It’s a big win for Yarosh and the Right Sector. It may well be that, by being based in Dnepropetrovsk, they intend to carve out a role for themselves as a “military frontier” of sorts, by keeping the unrest down in the border areas and also providing security at the border itself.
As to the US policy in Ukraine, I would have to disagree with Yurasumy here. The US seems to be clearly deferring to the EU since at least the Munich Conference. Senior EU officials were adamant that even should this round of Minsk talks fail, it will not change their mind concerning arming of Ukraine. The US seems to be respecting those wishes, restraining to providing support equipment (apparently communications equipment, artillery radars, and associated training) rather than actual weaponry.
http://www.fortruss.blogspot.com/2015/02/yarosh-draws-17-volunteer-battalions-to.html
From Fort Russ
From Fort Russ
2/12/2015
On the Outcome of the Minsk Negotiations: Kiev was given the opportunity to save face before dying.
By Ivan Lizan
Translated from Russian by J.Hawk
Imagine yourself as Petro Poroshenko for a minute: you fly in for a meeting, and you discover everyone is against you, the Europeans, the Russians, even the clever Belorussian with his little smile. The ally and patron is somewhere far away, behind an ocean. You have to run to make a phone call and get instructions. People are openly chuckling when you tell them there is no encirclement at Debaltsevo. They even ask you to leave the room so that Putin, Merkel, and Hollande can speak. You can’t believe in the outcome of the negotiations, and even tell the media that “all is lost.” A disaster.
But you still remember that your victory can easily be transformed into treachery, and you yourself can be deprived of power and even life. You have to save face, since you are not independent and don’t have any genuine power. Your competitor in Dnepropetrovsk already opened a parallel General Staff, and the efforts to disperse the Aidar failed completely. You even destroyed the coalition when you tried to make your friend/godfather the Prosecutor General.
So it’s better not to return at all without an agreement. It’s even more important not to return without an advantageous agreement. But there isn’t one. Because they put in front of you a compromise, and you had to sign on.
Holland and Merkel are beaming, because the plan worked and they believe in its implementation.
But only Lukashenko and Putin, and the DPR/LPR representatives understand what’s really going on.
Can you imagine how Poroshenko is supposed to issue orders to the Debaltsevo group after many of its officers had fled? If even Poltorak says that there is no encirclement. How are the Ukrainian soldiers to return to the demarcation line if they are encircled? Breaking out – means violating the ceasefire, staying put means death and capitulation.
You break the ceasefire and Minsk-2 collapses. But try to imagine how these measures are to be implemented.
First. Are the radicals going to agree to pay salaries to the “supporters of terrorism” on Donbass? For them salary non-payment is a victory over Putin.
Second. How do you intend to resurrect the Donbass special status law, after it was voided by the radicals in the Rada?
Third. How is Poroshenko going to command the territorial battalions and volunteer battalions, which are not under his control?
Fourth. How is he going to force his artillerymen to stop shelling Donbass cities?
Fifth. How is Poroshenko going to explain the troop withdrawal?
The answer is simple. He won’t. The provisions of the Minsk agreement are impossible to fulfill.
Incidentally, neither Kiev nor the republics plan to cancel their mobilizations. Units will be brought back to strength, and the republics’ mobilization is going somewhat better than Kiev’s. The war will inevitably continue, but the republics are in a better starting position than Kiev.
Therefore the outcome will be as follows: the ceasefire is temporary and will be violated. It only extends the death throes of the Kiev regime and of Ukraine as a state.
J.Hawk’s Comments: Lizan outlines Poroshenko’s quandary quite well, but in fact the situation is even worse for him.
For starters, Poroshenko clearly expected that the Minsk meeting would consist of The Leaders of the Free World (Poroshenko included) bringing “Putler’s aggression” to heel.
Instead it turned out to be Vlad and Friends putting the hurt on Poroshenko. From just observing the facial expressions and the body language, it was clear that he was on the receiving end of some serious pressure. Lavrov’s comment that the negotiations were going “better than super” was an early indication that Poroshenko walked into an ambush. What was the ambush intended to accomplish?
It would appear that Vlad’s Friends want Poroshenko to deal firmly with the Party of War in Kiev. It must have dawned on Merkel and Hollande (though the latter probably suspected this already) that the Kiev junta’s survival plan consists solely of hoping to provoke a large-scale conflict with Russia that would trigger a new Cold War on the European continent, and result in Ukraine being an “advanced forpost of the Western civilization”, an Israel of Eastern Europe of sorts, which in turn would mean billions and billions of dollars of economic and military aid. And the junta has no other plan. It never had any other plan. Its objective from the start was to provoke Russia (starting with “FSB snipers on the Maidan” and the moves to transfer the Sevastopol naval base to the US Navy) into doing something.
Well, they succeeded. Russia “did something”. It was only then that they discovered their miscalculation—the West does not have billions laying around to spend on cleptocratic Ukrainians with delusions of grandeur. Undaunted, they continued to escalate the situation, until the Europeans finally decided to step in, lest a full-scale great power war erupt on the European continent. First they apparently successfully convinced the Biden administration to kindly butt out by categorically ruling out deliveries of weapons to Ukraine. Then they pulled the plug on Kiev.
Poroshenko’s “mission impossible,” as it was evidently communicated to him by Hollande and Merkel, is to rein in the “war party” in Kiev by any means possible and then get on with destroying, excuse me, reforming the Ukrainian economy, Greece-style. It’s no longer self-evident that any violation of the ceasefire will be automatically blamed on Novorossia or Russia, as it was in the past. It is totally self-evident that no IMF credits will be forthcoming unless Poroshenko finally starts acting in a responsible manner. Moreover, considering what conditions are invariably attached to IMF credits, Ukraine’s ability to wage war will likely quickly decline due to the draconian budget cuts. Whatever Yatsenyuk had planned for this year will likely be significantly reduced if Yaresko is to convince Western donors Ukraine is serious about cutting government spending, and at the moment defense is where most of the money is.
So yes, by all means, try to put yourself into Poroshenko’s shoes at this point. His best chance is to convince the “war party” that their best chance is to help him stay in power. This line of argument has the benefit of having considerable merit to it, because should the Right Sector/Turchinov/whoever topple Poroshenko, would the new junta count on any support from the West?
Probably not, but do Yarosh and Turchinov realize it? The assumption Poroshenko and other sponsors of the Maidan made in unleashing the neo-Nazis on Ukraine’s political scene was that billions of dollars of Western aid would improve the situation in the country to such an extent that these movements would be starved of popular support. Instead, due to the deteriorating situation and the two lost military campaigns, they are gaining in strength, and their main enemy no longer is located in Donbass.
http://fortruss.blogspot.com/2015/02/all-is-lost-poroshenko-after-minsk-2.html
Posted on Fort Russ
2/12/2015
Ukraine, having lost its industry, is now also losing agriculture: Ukrainian Economist.
Translated from Russian by J.Hawk
The agriculture of a country once considered the Soviet Union’s granary is now facing the heaviest crisis since independence.
Ukraine is risking a totally failed sowing season for the first time since it gained independence, since the agricultural sector is facing many unresolved problems, argues Ukrainian economist Aleksandr Koltunovich.
“The state of Ukraine’s economy in 2015 shows that agriculture had disappeared from the list of main budget-forming branches of the economy, even though it was one of the institutional foundations for the development of many other sectors of the country’s economy,” Koltunovich sums up last year’s depressing results.
The agricultural sector is facing major problems of internal and international nature: the rapid devaluation of the hryvnya will increase agribusiness losses. “The 2015 sowing campaign is still ahead of us, and the price of fuel and lubricants is rigidly tied to the course of the dollar. Therefore all expenditures on fuel and on the actual sowing have to come out of someone’s pocket, either the farmer’s or the state’s. One way of the other, this will affect the consumer. Therefore Ukraine faces the possibility of having a failed sowing campaign for the first time since it gained independence,” argues Koltunovich.
Weak leadership by Ukraine’s government also played a major role. “There are many other problems in agriculture, just as in the economy as a whole. One has to keep in mind Ukraine still has considerable untapped potential in its agriculture. But if all leadership positions in agriculture-related agencies are occupied by such ‘effective and talented’ management as we have had and still have, then Ukraine’s agriculture will also ‘go far’. Just as it ceased being an industrial country, it will cease being an agricultural one as well,’ Koltunovich concludes.
J.Hawk’s Comment: But why bother with restoring the industry or the agriculture, if it is so much easier, and considerably more glamorous, to wage a “short victorious war” or two? One of the crucial factors that pushed the junta into a conflict with Russia was the magnitude of the problems the country was facing, which was compounded by the leadership’s inability to cope with them. But the war only accelerated the economy’s collapse—it’s unlikely Kiev could manage another major military campaign this year, now that it’s debt has skyrocketed, the hryvnya has collapsed, and gold and currency reserves have evaporated. Ironically, the end result is a country that is far less likely to be accepted into European institutions than it was on the eve of the Maidan.
http://fortruss.blogspot.com/2015/02/ukraine-will-cease-being-agricultural.html
From Fort Russ
From Fort Russ
February 12, 2015
Dima Piterski
Translated from Russian by Kristina Rus
Hollande and Merkel’s betrayal! “Minsk conspiracy” in the eyes of the enemy
It is interesting to see the commentary on the Minsk agreement by our enemies. Today appeared an article of staunch Russophobes Illarionov and Piontkovsky, the general point of which is “Hollande and Merkel’s betrayal”, “everything is lost, the client is leaving, the cast is removed” [as in a popular Russian comedy “The Diamond Arm”], and so on. Take a look:
A. Illarionov, A. Piontkovsky. Minsk protocols
The only significant positive result of the adopted document is the agreement on a ceasefire and separation of the warring parties. This gives a chance to end the bloodshed, the deaths of Russians and Ukrainians, civilians, volunteers, military personnel. However, the date of the armistice – February 15 – is alarming. Do not rule out that the remaining three days available to Putin can be used for provocations, including in the area of Debaltsevo. For example, same as the events during the exit of the Ukrainian military from the encirclement under Ilovaisk, through corridors proposed in August.
The main content of the adopted documents.
– Increasing since Brisbane G20 Summit, international isolation of the Kremlin regime is broken.
– Putin has again become equal participant in international meetings and now together with the leaders of democratic States can sign joint documents.
– Russia is not considered a party to the conflict.
– Russian aggression against Ukraine is not recognized.
– The presence of Russian troops on the territory of Ukraine is not condemned.
– Demand for the withdrawal of Russian troops from the territory of Ukraine is missing.
– Possible supplies of defensive weapons to Ukraine are disrupted. Continue reading