Venezuela foils Washington’s coup plot

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Another coup plot by the United States government, with a sitting president and vice president leading it.

Posted on Global Research, February 14, 2015
By Stephen Lendman

On February 12, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro announced Obama’s plot to kill him, oust his government, and seize power forcefully was thwarted. More on this below.

Throughout his tenure, Obama waged war on humanity. It continues against free people everywhere.

His deplorable record might make some despots blush. He viciously targets fundamental freedoms at home and abroad.

Governs under a police state apparatus. Unilaterally decides who lives, dies, stays free or is imprisoned.

He continues waging war on Afghanistan after pledging to end it during his first year in office.

No end of conflict looms. Permanent war and occupation is planned. Afghanistan is a wasteland of dystopian misery.

Obama ravaged and destroyed Libya. Turning North Africa’s most developed country into an out-of-control cauldron of violence. Its people stripped of all social benefits and rights Gaddafi provided.

In June 2009, he orchestrated Honduran President Manuel Zelaya’s ouster. A US supported fascist despot replaced him.

After Haiti’s devastating January 2010 earthquake, Obama militarized the country, plunders it freely, exploits its people ruthlessly, orchestrated rigged elections, and prohibits democratic governance.

In September 2010, his attempt to topple Ecuador’s Rafael Correa failed. In 2012, he orchestrated Paraguayan President Fernando Lugo’s ouster by rigged parliamentary impeachment.

In February 2011, he manipulated Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak’s removal. So-called Arab spring was more mirage than real.

In July 2013, Mohamed Morsi’s toppling followed. Obama’s dirty hands conspired with Egypt’s General Abdul Fatah al-Sisi to install junta rule.

In February 2014, He ousted Ukraine’s democratically elected government. Put neo-Nazi putschists in charge.

Uses them to wage war on their own people. So-called February 12 Minsk resolution is pure fantasy.

No end of conflict looms. Peace is a convenient illusion. So is democracy. America tolerates none at home or abroad.

Throughout Chavez’s tenure as Venezuela’s president, Washington went all-out to oust him. Obama succeeded by killing him.

He wants fascist rule replacing Maduro. Bolivarian social justice ended. Predatory capitalism replacing it.

He’s waging relentless economic and political war. A previous article discussed Maduro accusing Vice President Joe Biden of directing efforts to oust him.

Likely kill him. On February 2, he said, “(t)he northern imperial power has entered a dangerous phase of desperation, going to talk to the continent’s governments to announce the overthrow of my government. And I accuse Vice-president Joe Biden of this” plot.

“There are US diplomats in Venezuela contracting military officials to betray their country, looking to influence socialist political leaders, public opinion leaders and entrepreneurs to provoke a coup.”

He called Washington’s plot no ordinary crisis. He appealed to Venezuelans to remain on high alert against “a bloody coup underway” against everything Bolivarianism represents.

In a televised Thursday address, he announced a US-instigated foiled coup plot.

Saying “(i)t is the government of the United States that is behind the plans of destabilization and coups against Venezuela. I have come here to denounce it.”

“We have dismantled a coup attempt against democracy, against the stability of our homeland.”

“It was an attempt to use a group of officials from the air force to provoke a violent act, an attack.”

Civilians and military members were involved. They were arrested. They remain detained.

They’re connected to four Venezuelan air force generals involved in a 2014 plot to oust Maduro. A State Department spokesperson declined to comment.

Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez said “Bolivarian Armed Forces remain resolute in their democratic beliefs and reject coup schemes that threaten the peace of the republic.”

National Assembly President Diosdado Cabello explained details of Obama’s plot.

Scheduled on the anniversary of the start of last year’s US-orchestrated street violence. Plans included killing people during marches and demonstrations.

Using a Tucano jet aircraft to bomb strategic targets, including:

  • the Miraflores (presidential palace);
  • military intelligence headquarters;
  • defense and justice ministries;
  • Caracas municipality building;
  • public prosecutor’s office;
  • TeleSUR building;
  • National Electoral Council (CNE); and
  • central Caracas’ Metro station Zona Rental;

Installing “transitional” governance would follow. Opposition legislator Julio Borges was accused of choosing locations to be attacked.

Caracas Mayor Jorge Rodriquez said “he’ll have to explain if he was planning this map of attack targets…”

(A)mong them was the (western area of Caracas) La Cadelaria where the opposition always wins elections…”

(W)hat were they going to say to the people who came out of their houses because they were going to be bombed…”

(W)hen they were going to bomb the international channel, TeleSUR?”

Cabello said authorities seized grenades, military and Sebin (intelligence) uniforms, and a video coup plot declaration by masked military officials displaying deadly AR15 rifles.

Automatic versions can fire 800 rounds per minute. Semi-automatic ones are widely available in America. Venezuelan civilians are prohibited from owning them.

“Venezuela has a very violent sector of the opposition that doesn’t hesitate to plan actions that could mean dozens of deaths or the assassination of the president,” said Rodriguez.

Cabello said Borges and opposition leader Antonio Ledezma planned to announce the coup publicly.

Sign it. Then have corporate controlled anti-Bolivarian national media publish it.

Maduro said one suspect arrested was under surveillance since last year’s street violence. He and others continued plotting to oust Venezuela’s government.

With considerable help from Washington. A four-stage plan was hatched. Including economic and political war.

Inventing a nonexistent humanitarian crisis. A political coup. Followed by a military one installing transitional governance.

Maduro said the plot was discovered after military officials approached to participate reported the scheme to civilian authorities.

On Thursday, Maduro urged Venezuelans to remain on alert. Prepare to counter US-directed fascist attempts to seize power forcefully, he said.

Families of victims of last year’s fascist street violence want everyone to know hard truths about what happened.

Washington’s orchestrated right-wing rampage left 43 dead. Hundreds of others injured. A deadly repeat looms.

Obama wants Venezuela looking like Ukraine. He wants its democratic governance destroyed. Its valued energy resources plundered. Its people exploited.

Venezuelans want the whole world to know what happened last year. What’s planned against their country.

According to a committee representing families of victims of last year’s violence, perpetrators blamed government authorities for their crimes.

Hard truths were “silenced or distorted by some media and politicians, as well as by certain international human rights organizations, which portray the intellectual and material authors of the violence as the victims of state power, forgetting those who really suffered the consequences of the call to violence.”

“That’s why, we have decided to demand that the events be investigated and the truth determined, about who was intellectually and materially responsible for these human rights violations, and what their real motivations were,” they said.

“Above all, that they be punished accordingly. We are convinced that there won’t be justice until the truth of what happened is known by everyone, inside and outside our country.”

The day after Maduro’s April 2013 election, opposition candidate Henrique Capriles called on supporters to rage (arrechera) in the streets.

Weeks of violence, deaths and destruction followed selectively in middle and upscale neighborhoods. The vast majority of Venezuelans opposed it. They still do.

Obama continues going all-out to crush Bolivarianism once and for all. To return Venezuela to its bad old days. To restore dark side rule. Millions of Venezuelans are a bulwark against him.

Obama’s failed scheme is Washington’s latest attempt to replace Venezuelan democracy with fascist rule.

Expect more of the same ahead. Expect Obama to keep menacing humanity throughout his remaining months in office.

Stephen Lendman lives in Chicago. He can be reached at lendmanstephen@sbcglobal.net . His new book as editor and contributor is titled “Flashpoint in Ukraine: US Drive for Hegemony Risks WW III.” http://www.claritypress.com/LendmanIII.html Visit his blog site at sjlendman.blogspot.com. Listen to cutting-edge discussions with distinguished guests on the Progressive Radio News Hour on the Progressive Radio Network. It airs three times weekly: live on Sundays at 1PM Central time plus two prerecorded archived programs.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/venezuela-foils-obamas-coup-plot/5431160

Report: Georgia’s Saakashvili named head of Ukraine’s foreign affairs advisors

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From Stop NATO

Trend News Agency
February 11, 2015

Georgia’s ex-president named head of Ukrainian presidential advisors

Baku: Georgia’s former president, Mikheil Saakashvili, has been appointed the chairman of the council of advisors for international affairs under Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko, News- Georgia agency reported citing the Pirveli Radio.

Georgia-News also reported citing the radio that a briefing to be held in Kiev will be also attended by Saakashvili.

Meanwhile, the press service of Saakashvili’s party, the United National Movement, said they currently can’t confirm the report.

“So far we have no information,” said the press service.

The MPs from the United National Movement haven’t commented on the report either.

“I have no information on the matter, and I can’t confirm it,” Goga Khachidze, an MP from the United National Movement, told News-Georgia.

Saakashvili left Georgia after the inauguration of the new president, Giorgi Margvelashvili, in November 2013.

The Georgian Prosecutor General’s Office filed charges in absentia against Saakashvili on several criminal cases, including the embezzlement of about $5 million of public funds for personal needs.

Bulgarian protesters denounce planned NATO base

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From Stop NATO

Press TV
February 9, 2015

Bulgarian protesters censure NATO base plans

Bulgarian protesters have held a demonstration to condemn the government’s plan to allow the setting up of a NATO military command base on the country’s soil.

The demonstrators assembled in front of the presidency building in the capital city of Sofia on Sunday and later marched to the parliament, carrying banners that bore anti-EU and NATO messages.

“25 years of American democracy – robbery, ruin, destruction of the state,” read one banner.

The demonstrators also called for the resignation of Bulgarian President Rosen Plevneliev.

The protest came after NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg announced earlier this month that NATO would immediately be establishing command and control units in six eastern European states, including Bulgaria.

The Western military block has over the past year increased its presence and conducted several drills in Eastern Europe amid the crisis in Ukraine. In 2014, NATO forces held some 200 military exercises with Stoltenberg promising that such maneuvers would continue.

Russia has also condemned NATO’s exercises and military buildup toward its borders on numerous occasions.

https://rickrozoff.wordpress.com/2015/02/09/bulgarian-protesters-denounce-planned-nato-base/

Three children killed in a direct hit on Gorlovka home

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From Fort Russ

February 12, 2015
Lifenews

Translated by Kristna Rus
Eduard Basurin, deputy corps commander of Ministry of Defense of Donetsk People’s Republic:
“A very big tragedy happened today, a tragedy for the entire Republic. At 20:30 an artillery shelling of the city began. As a result of which, there was a direct hit on a residential house, where there were three children: a one year old boy, a 6 year old girl, and a 12 year old girl. They all died on the spot.
During the meeting in Minsk, when the signing of ceasefire memorandum was taking place, when the ink has not yet dried on that document, this tragedy happened.
This shows the fallacy of those authorities who are now in Kiev. They are inhuman. There is no other word for it.
They are not Nazis, they are not fascists, it is something worse. To express what each of us is feeling right now… The deaths of these children, who were at the beginning of their life, who were just beginning to discover the beauty of life…
Gorlovka was under fire for 40 minutes. There may be more victims. Currently emergency crews are working on clearing the rubble, and we will tell you the latest information in the morning.”
PS Elsewhere it was reported that the mother of the children was at the home, and survived… 

NATO Chief: Military cohesion needed to “prevent new age of disorder”

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From Stop NATO

U.S. Department of Defense
February 9, 2015
Unity Will Prevent New Age of Disorder, NATO Chief Says
By Jim Garamone

[Perhaps Stoltenberg meant to employ the verbs create, spread or maintain for “prevent.”]

WASHINGTON: Solidarity is needed to prevent a new age of disorder, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said yesterday in Munich.

“History is not written in advance,” the secretary general said at the annual Munich Security Conference. “We can prevent an age of disorder if we have the will. We can keep the international order that has served us so well if we stand up for its rules and if we stand up for each other.”

Last year marked a turning point for European security and the global order, he said. In Europe, Russia annexed Crimea and is seeking to destabilize Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin is seeking to intimidate the Baltic republics, Poland, Romania and Georgia.

“North Africa and the Middle East are also in turmoil,” Stoltenberg said. “States are breaking up, and conflict is at our borders. Extremism is fueling barbaric violence across the region and inspiring terrorism on our own streets.”

Maintaining Order

But the international order can be maintained if like-minded nations stick together, he said.

One of the tools, he said, is NATO — the most successful international security pact in history. “Since its foundation, NATO has been a resolute guardian of the international order,” Stoltenberg said. “That order is being challenged, and we must do our utmost to protect it.”

NATO must change to address the threats of the 21st century, and it must maintain and increase its strength, the secretary general said…

NATO and allied forces must be ready to deploy at a moment’s notice and must be able to deter any threat from any direction, Stoltenberg said, including countering the so-called “hybrid warfare” that Russia has used in Ukraine.

‘We Cannot Do More With Less Forever’

This is going to require resources, the secretary general said, noting that since the end of the Cold War, European defense spending has fallen steadily. “We cannot do more with less forever,” he added.

At NATO’s summit in Wales, alliance leaders agreed to increase defense spending as their nations’ economies grow. “It cannot be done overnight,” Stoltenberg said, “but it can be done.”

…

“We are stepping up our support for Jordan, and Iraq has asked us to help improve its defense capacity,” he added. “In this way, we can project stability without deploying large numbers of troops, because most of the time, it will be more effective to help countries look after their own security.”

NATO Chief: Military Cohesion Needed To “Prevent New Age Of Disorder”

Poroshenko decrees Heavenly Hundred Heroes Day on February 20

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From Stop NATO.com

Interfax-Ukraine
February 12, 2015

February 20 to be commemorated as Heavenly Hundred Heroes Day– decree

fig01

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has signed a decree “On the tribute to the feat of the participants of the revolution of dignity and the commemoration of the Heavenly Hundred Heroes”.

“The document declares February 20 as the Day of the Heavenly Hundred Heroes, as a tribute to courage, willpower and fortitude of citizens who sacrificed their lives in the course of the Revolution of Dignity (November 2013 – February 2014), defending the ideals of democracy, human rights and freedom, as well as the European future of Ukraine,” the president’s press service announced on Wednesday.

According to the decree, the Cabinet of Ministers is instructed to develop and approve an action plan to accomplish the following: establish a museum in Kyiv dedicated to revolution; involve the National Academy of Sciences, museum, archive and research institutions in the search for photos, videos and other materials that cover the Revolution of Dignity.

The Samopomich parliamentary faction addressed the President last week with a request to mark February 20 as the Heavenly Hundred Heroes Day.

At the end of February 2014, protest rallies in the center of Kyiv ended with nearly one hundred activists being shot to death. They are now called the Heavenly Hundred Heroes, or simply the Heavenly Hundred.

Valhalla Valiant Victors: Kiev Gets Intoxicated On Nazi Metaphysics

Editor’s Note: How many of those shot to death were killed by Maidan-sponsored snipers? Will that information be included in the museums? How many policemen were wounded or killed trying to keep the peace? Will they be excluded from the Hundred Heroes?

“Defending the ideals of democracy, human rights and freedom”??? How could anyone be so delusional? Yet, the United States supports this Kiev regime.

Minsk-2 is over before it began: 17 volunteer battalions refuse to obey Kiev

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From Fort Russ

The Right Sector

February 12, 2015
Translated by Kristina Rus
RIGA, 12 Feb – RIA Novosti.

Defense Minister of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic Vladimir Kononov said that 17 territorial battalions involved in the fighting in the South-East of Ukraine pulled out of control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and went under the control of the Right Sector.

“I have data that 17 territorial battalions withdrew from subordination to UAF and came under the jurisdiction of Yarosh. This is the “Right Sector”. “Right Sector” never fulfilled any agreements and in fact they constantly provoked further clashes,” – said Kononov on Thursday on Latvian TV show “Tonight” on channel LTV7.

“Right Sector” – is a Ukrainian union of radical nationalist organizations. In January and February 2014 the militants of the movement were engaged in clashes with the police and the seizure of administrative buildings, and since April – in the suppression of protests in the East of Ukraine. Moscow has repeatedly called on Kiev to disarm illegal armed groups, including the militants of the “Right Sector”.

On Thursday in Minsk ended peace talks in “Normandy format” with the participation of Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany. Following the talks, it became known that an immediate and comprehensive ceasefire in some districts of Donetsk and Lugansk regions of Ukraine should start from 00: 00 (Kiev time) on 15 February 2015.

The withdrawal of heavy weapons must begin no later than the second day after the ceasefire and be completed within 14 days specified in the Minsk document. The security zone for the heavy artillery in Donbass should be from 50 to 140 kilometers.

Coincidentally, Kolomoisky also controls 17 battalions.


 Kristina Rus:

 The Minsk-2 agreement was the end of Poroshenko, and the end has begun. Crimea and Donbass uprisings were a defensive response to the threat of armed ultra-nationalists, which originally formed the Right Sector, and later – the various volunteer battalions. The Russian South-East is fighting not against the Ukrainian people, but against the raging ultra-nationalists, for whom the latest agreement was a shameful capitulation, and they had just declared they are not obliged to follow it. For them Poroshenko is a traitor, Russian-Ukrainians are subhumans, who should be annihilated and/or chased from the Ukrainian lands. 

The union of ultra-nationalists and liberals which made Maidan of 2014 a success as opposed to the Maidan of 2004 stands upon the ultra-nationalist ideology, which is incompatible with any attempt to reconcile the divided Ukraine. The conflict between the East and the West is woven into the fabric of today’s Ukraine, pumped with nationalist propaganda. The only chance for peace is a military victory of one of the parties. Or else, the Kiev regime needs to cleanse itself of the brown plague, of which it was born. This is what Minsk-2 attempted to achieve. 

 If indeed these are the battalions controlled by Kolomoisky, then he is keeping his bet on the neo-nazis, who would help him get rid of Poroshenko and increase his clout. In a way he is out of options as they are his only fighting force. Where this all will lead is looking more and murkier by day.

 The question is how will Europe and USA try to save face by enabling the “pro-US” neo-nazi forces who just wiped their bottoms with the latest agreement? Will they still be able to turn the tables and blame the “separatists” for everything? 

 As for whether this was a success for Putin: the ultimate measure of victory in Ukraine is denazification and building of a state friendly to neighboring Russia. In order to do it, Ukraine needs to surgically remove the cancer that is eating at it from inside. That means entering the stage of open confrontation within itself. 

http://fortruss.blogspot.com/2015/02/minsk-2-is-over-before-it-began-17.html

Yarosh draws 17 “volunteer battalions” to his side

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From Fort Russ

2/11/2015
Kolomoysky is creating his own GenStaff (Clarification of situation)
By Yurasumy
Translated from Russian by J.Hawk

The next moment of honesty from Yarosh:

“The new HQ will be joined by about 17 various volunteer battalions, subordinated to the MVD and the MOD, and of course the Right Sector Volunteer Corps.

We have already created a unique operational staff. It will be located in Dnepropetrovsk. It will perform intelligence data exchange, mutual assistance, military-technical cooperation, and so on. We may also form certain operational formations at the front, after all we often have the best operational information about what is happening on this or that sector of the front simply because our battalions are there. We can make recommendations to the General Staff in order to carry out operational and tactical missions,” added Yarosh.

As we can see, the creation of a new command entity for part of the UAF and MVD is proceeding at full pace, and it will be based in Dnepropetrovsk. The formation will in practical terms means the formation of a Dnepropetrovsk khanate, and an increase in Kolomoysky’s influence in intra-Ukrainian power struggles, which will violate the current balance of power.

Even if there is an agreement reached in Minsk today, which I don’t believe will happen (if anything is signed, it will not be done seriously or for long, unfortunately), the break-down of the UAF and MVD into two components will be de-facto concluded. Then UAF formations will have to choose a side, either with Poroshenko or not with Poroshenko.

It won’t happen today or tomorrow, but very soon everyone who is fighting against LPR/DPR will have to make that choice, and then the Ukrainian civil war will spread with new force to new territories. Because according to the Washington central, it’s not enough to plunge the Donbass into chaos; all of Ukraine must be affected. And unfortunately the people of Ukraine are following that path.

P.S. US plans do not foresee the war in Ukraine ever ending. If it ends, it will be a defeat for Washington. They will never agree to that. I am certain of it.

J.Hawk’s Comment: It’s not a given that Yarosh is Kolomoysky’s creature. After all, it is Yarosh who controls the Right Sector, and Kolomoysky has no means of replacing him with anyone else. The location of the parallel Right Sector HQ in Dnepropetrovsk does not necessarily imply Kolomoysky’s control over the enterprise. Instead, it may mean Yarosh is being planted there to keep an eye on Kolomoysky whose political reliability is probably suspect. Though it is possible that Yarosh is happy to collect Kolomoysky’s money in exchange for “protection” from Poroshenko, and that the relationship between the two is strictly business, with the extent of Yarosh’s loyalty to Kolomoysky being limited by the latter’s cash reserves. To be sure, Yarosh very recently stated that he made a mistake by supporting Poroshenko during and after the Maidan.

Aside from that, one cannot help but agree with Yurasumy’s analysis. It would appear that the volunteer battalions opted on their own to join the Right Sector’s command structure, even though they are presumably still attached to regular army brigades. No word on any regular army or National Guard formations opting to come under Yarosh’s command—they are presumably remaining loyal to Poroshenko. But since the volunteer battalions are “legal” and therefore have access to all manner of military equipment, the “military-technical cooperation” simply amounts to a back-door way of accomplishing what Yarosh could not do openly, namely ensuring access to large quantities of military equipment. Because now the volunteer battalions will be able to pass their weapons to the Right Sector, then request replacement (by claiming destruction during combat or some such thing) from the MOD. It’s a big win for Yarosh and the Right Sector. It may well be that, by being based in Dnepropetrovsk, they intend to carve out a role for themselves as a “military frontier” of sorts, by keeping the unrest down in the border areas and also providing security at the border itself.

As to the US policy in Ukraine, I would have to disagree with Yurasumy here. The US seems to be clearly deferring to the EU since at least the Munich Conference. Senior EU officials were adamant that even should this round of Minsk talks fail, it will not change their mind concerning arming of Ukraine. The US seems to be respecting those wishes, restraining to providing support equipment (apparently communications equipment, artillery radars, and associated training) rather than actual weaponry.

http://www.fortruss.blogspot.com/2015/02/yarosh-draws-17-volunteer-battalions-to.html

 

Ukrainian industry to Parliament: “Yank Yats!”

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From Fort Russ

Recent activity in the Antonov factory
UNN report by Tamara Semenenko February 5, 2015
Russian version of same here
February 6, 2015
Translated from Russian by Tom Winter
Kiev, February 5 UNN [Ukrainian National News service]. Almost one million workers throughout Ukraine will experience a lockout (work stoppage — Ed.) At present so far they have not been paid since autumn. Employers, entrepreneurs, and industrialists announced this at a press conference, UNN reports.
In the economic crisis here in wartime, the government should count on domestic producers, but at present, Ukraine is importing glass, military uniforms, and also coal. This policy has led to the loss of a third of the work force.
“Among the people, they’re calling the government “the Liquidation Commission,” said Alexander Oleinik, chairman of the Kherson Association of Employers.
According to Oleinik, just about all glass production has stopped. Yuzhmash [Southern Machine Factory, the state rocket and missile producer — tr] has stopped production. In many divisions of Sumy [largest maker of gas compression and transmission equipment in the former Soviet Union — tr] the workers were laid off in October with an advance of 1000 hryvnia [about $50 — tr] The fate of the aviation plants in Kiev and Kharkov remains unclear.
So the employers, in their open report, warn the existing government about the responsibility that it must bear for the damage to the Ukrainian economy. The chairman of the Pan-Ukrainian Association of Employers, Alexander Sokolov summed it up:  “We appeal to the parliamentary coalition: relieve Yatsenyuk!” [Смените Яценюка!]
Translator’s note: Ukraine inherited the Antonov Aviation headquarters when the Soviet Union broke up. Its only income now seems to be leasing of the world’s biggest freightliner, the Antonov 235, which is so big it can transport tanks, or even railway cars. Only one has ever been built. As the aviation industry was tightly intertwined between Russia and Ukraine, the ‘regime change’ of February 21 has been a stymie for the industry on both sides of the border.
http://www.fortruss.blogspot.com/2015/02/ukrainian-industry-to-parliament-yank.html

“All is lost”– Poroshenko after Minsk-2

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From Fort Russ

2/12/2015

On the Outcome of the Minsk Negotiations: Kiev was given the opportunity to save face before dying.

By Ivan Lizan

Translated from Russian by J.Hawk

Imagine yourself as Petro Poroshenko for a minute: you fly in for a meeting, and you discover everyone is against you, the Europeans, the Russians, even the clever Belorussian with his little smile. The ally and patron is somewhere far away, behind an ocean. You have to run to make a phone call and get instructions. People are openly chuckling when you tell them there is no encirclement at Debaltsevo. They even ask you to leave the room so that Putin, Merkel, and Hollande can speak. You can’t believe in the outcome of the negotiations, and even tell the media that “all is lost.” A disaster.

But you still remember that your victory can easily be transformed into treachery, and you yourself can be deprived of power and even life. You have to save face, since you are not independent and don’t have any genuine power. Your competitor in Dnepropetrovsk already opened a parallel General Staff, and the efforts to disperse the Aidar failed completely. You even destroyed the coalition when you tried to make your friend/godfather the Prosecutor General.

So it’s better not to return at all without an agreement. It’s even more important not to return without an advantageous agreement. But there isn’t one. Because they put in front of you a compromise, and you had to sign on.

Holland and Merkel are beaming, because the plan worked and they believe in its implementation.

But only Lukashenko and Putin, and the DPR/LPR representatives understand what’s really going on.

Can you imagine how Poroshenko is supposed to issue orders to the Debaltsevo group after many of its officers had fled? If even Poltorak says that there is no encirclement. How are the Ukrainian soldiers to return to the demarcation line if they are encircled? Breaking out – means violating the ceasefire, staying put means death and capitulation.

You break the ceasefire and Minsk-2 collapses. But try to imagine how these measures are to be implemented.

First. Are the radicals going to agree to pay salaries to the “supporters of terrorism” on Donbass? For them salary non-payment is a victory over Putin.

Second. How do you intend to resurrect the Donbass special status law, after it was voided by the radicals in the Rada?

Third. How is Poroshenko going to command the territorial battalions and volunteer battalions, which are not under his control?

Fourth. How is he going to force his artillerymen to stop shelling Donbass cities?

Fifth. How is Poroshenko going to explain the troop withdrawal?

The answer is simple. He won’t. The provisions of the Minsk agreement are impossible to fulfill.

Incidentally, neither Kiev nor the republics plan to cancel their mobilizations. Units will be brought back to strength, and the republics’ mobilization is going somewhat better than Kiev’s. The war will inevitably continue, but the republics are in a better starting position than Kiev.

Therefore the outcome will be as follows: the ceasefire is temporary and will be violated. It only extends the death throes of the Kiev regime and of Ukraine as a state.

J.Hawk’s Comments: Lizan outlines Poroshenko’s quandary quite well, but in fact the situation is even worse for him.

For starters, Poroshenko clearly expected that the Minsk meeting would consist of The Leaders of the Free World (Poroshenko included) bringing “Putler’s aggression” to heel.

Instead it turned out to be Vlad and Friends putting the hurt on Poroshenko. From just observing the facial expressions and the body language, it was clear that he was on the receiving end of some serious pressure. Lavrov’s comment that the negotiations were going “better than super” was an early indication that Poroshenko walked into an ambush. What was the ambush intended to accomplish?

It would appear that Vlad’s Friends want Poroshenko to deal firmly with the Party of War in Kiev. It must have dawned on Merkel and Hollande (though the latter probably suspected this already) that the Kiev junta’s survival plan consists solely of hoping to provoke a large-scale conflict with Russia that would trigger a new Cold War on the European continent, and result in Ukraine being an “advanced forpost of the Western civilization”, an Israel of Eastern Europe of sorts, which in turn would mean billions and billions of dollars of economic and military aid. And the junta has no other plan. It never had any other plan. Its objective from the start was to provoke Russia (starting with “FSB snipers on the Maidan” and the moves to transfer the Sevastopol naval base to the US Navy) into doing something.

Well, they succeeded. Russia “did something”. It was only then that they discovered their miscalculation—the West does not have billions laying around to spend on cleptocratic Ukrainians with delusions of grandeur. Undaunted, they continued to escalate the situation, until the Europeans finally decided to step in, lest a full-scale great power war erupt on the European continent. First they apparently successfully convinced the Biden administration to kindly butt out by categorically ruling out deliveries of weapons to Ukraine. Then they pulled the plug on Kiev.

Poroshenko’s “mission impossible,” as it was evidently communicated to him by Hollande and Merkel, is to rein in the “war party” in Kiev by any means possible and then get on with destroying, excuse me, reforming the Ukrainian economy, Greece-style. It’s no longer self-evident that any violation of the ceasefire will be automatically blamed on Novorossia or Russia, as it was in the past. It is totally self-evident that no IMF credits will be forthcoming unless Poroshenko finally starts acting in a responsible manner. Moreover, considering what conditions are invariably attached to IMF credits, Ukraine’s ability to wage war will likely quickly decline due to the draconian budget cuts. Whatever Yatsenyuk had planned for this year will likely be significantly reduced if Yaresko is to convince Western donors Ukraine is serious about cutting government spending, and at the moment defense is where most of the money is.

So yes, by all means, try to put yourself into Poroshenko’s shoes at this point. His best chance is to convince the “war party” that their best chance is to help him stay in power. This line of argument has the benefit of having considerable merit to it, because should the Right Sector/Turchinov/whoever topple Poroshenko, would the new junta count on any support from the West?

Probably not, but do Yarosh and Turchinov realize it? The assumption Poroshenko and other sponsors of the Maidan made in unleashing the neo-Nazis on Ukraine’s political scene was that billions of dollars of Western aid would improve the situation in the country to such an extent that these movements would be starved of popular support. Instead, due to the deteriorating situation and the two lost military campaigns, they are gaining in strength, and their main enemy no longer is located in Donbass.

http://fortruss.blogspot.com/2015/02/all-is-lost-poroshenko-after-minsk-2.html